Dallas Fort Worth Urban Forum

DFW Economy

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Tivo_Kenevil
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Re: DFW Economy

Postby Tivo_Kenevil » 12 Sep 2017 18:25

DPatel304 wrote:Dallas isn't that desirable, especially when you talk about city living.

Yep.

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tanzoak
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Re: DFW Economy

Postby tanzoak » 12 Sep 2017 18:28

DPatel304 wrote:Ah, that's good to know. That is definitely interesting, but I'm not so sure it represents a 'shift', just yet. I think there is demand for both suburb living and city living, but, the thing is, DFW suburbs are HIGHLY desirable, so it's no surprise they are still going strong. Dallas isn't that desirable, especially when you talk about city living.

Also, I'm curious to know if the suburbs were late to the party when it comes to multi-family construction. Is it possible that Dallas had a strong start with multi-family construction, while the suburbs were still building single-family homes, and now things are generally balancing out?


Non-Dallas single-family permitting has actually increased more (+61%) than non-Dallas multifamily permitting (+16%).

Dallas single-family permitting hasn't changed too much (-12%), especially compared to multifamily (-57%).

The 2011-2016 boom was certainly more city-oriented (Dallas >20% of all DFW permitting) than where we're at now (12%) or the 2002-2007 boom (~10-12%).

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Cord1936
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Re: DFW Economy

Postby Cord1936 » 20 Sep 2017 08:47

GDP by metropolitan area for 2016 was released this morning by the BEA.

Dallas/Ft. Worth ascended to the 4th largest economy in the nation, supplanting Houston/Woodlands in that spot, and jumping two places from 6th in 2015 to 4th in 2016!

Dallas/Ft. Worth leapt over both Washington D.C. and Houston/Woodlands in a single year ... pretty darn impressive!

DFW's GDP is now $511,606,000 billion - up from $493,048,000 billion in 2015 - increasing by $18,558,000 billion and at a strong +3.8% clip.

Houston/Woodlands dropped to 6th largest economy from 4th due to the oil downturn.

Houston/Woodlands is now $478,618,000 billion - down from $496,708,000 billion in 2015 - contracting by $18,091,000 billion and at a negative 3.6% rate.

Houston/Woodlands was the only major metro to suffer a decline year-over-year in the latest GDP release, falling two places from 4th to 6th in a single year.

GDP release: https://www.bea.gov/newsreleases/regional/gdp_metro/2017/gdp_metro0917.htm
Last edited by Cord1936 on 20 Sep 2017 15:37, edited 3 times in total.

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tamtagon
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Re: DFW Economy

Postby tamtagon » 20 Sep 2017 09:27

inconceivable.jpg


~~The Oil & Gas Cartel
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tamtagon
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Re: DFW Economy

Postby tamtagon » 20 Sep 2017 11:48

Cord1936 wrote:DFW's GDP is now $511,606,000 billion - up from $493,048,000 billion in 2015.
GDP release: https://www.bea.gov/newsreleases/regional/gdp_metro/2017/gdp_metro0917.htm


A different perspective:

$850,000,000.00 San Fran-San Jose-Sacto
$800,000,000.00 I-35 corridor, Dallas-Waco-Temple-Austin-San Anton-Laredo
$700,000,000.00 Washington DC-Baltimore

Texas is moving up in the world, totally for sure, but there's a long way to go....

Tnexster
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Re: DFW Economy

Postby Tnexster » 20 Sep 2017 12:56

That is quite a drop for Houston, I wonder how the floods will impact them? Lots of economic activity in rebuilding but not sure about the longer term prospects.

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Cord1936
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Re: DFW Economy

Postby Cord1936 » 08 Oct 2017 21:17

Tnexster wrote:That is quite a drop for Houston, I wonder how the floods will impact them? Lots of economic activity in rebuilding but not sure about the longer term prospects.


It's actually far worse than anyone realizes. Houston/The Woodlands has had negative GDP for three straight years ... with their latest GDP they are lower than they were in 2013.

You have to go back to 2012 as a comparison in order for their current GDP reading to be considered positive growth.

Houston/The Woodlands has at best been treading water this year and Harvey's effects will probably cause a contraction in GDP for them again when this year's numbers are released a year from now.

Unless oil soars to the $100 range again it is going to be a long, hard slug for them to pull out of the hole they've fallen into, if ever. A return to $100 oil is not being predicted by any analysts and really just doesn't appear to be in the cards ever again.

It is now appearing that 2016 is going to be viewed as the watershed year in which DFW pulled ahead of Houston/The Woodlands in a manner so definitive on several key indices and levels ... that we will not look back for a very, very long time ... if ever.

DFW is now the economic king and powerhouse in Texas ... and the rock solid # 4 in the nation ... and we should retain those positions indefinitely into the future (barring some extraordinary geopolitical rupture).

Image2016 Top 10 Metropolitan Areas by GDP, on Flickr

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Re: DFW Economy

Postby Tnexster » 22 Dec 2017 18:03


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Re: DFW Economy

Postby Tnexster » 27 Dec 2017 20:18

D-FW's office market is heading into 2018 on a high note

https://www.dallasnews.com/opinion/comm ... -high-note

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Cord1936
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Re: DFW Economy

Postby Cord1936 » 27 Jan 2018 19:19

DFW Building Activity Topped $22.2 Billion in 2017
By Steve Brown, Dallas Morning News, 01-25-18

Recap:

* DFW set a new all-time construction volume record at $22.2 billion in 2017
* DFW ranked as number 2 in the nation in 2017 after NYC's $41.1 billion
* DFW 2017 dollar volume is 6% more than 2016, which itself had been the previous record
* DFW commercial building activity totaled $9.6 billion, a 10 percent gain from 2016
* DFW residential building construction hit $12.6 billion, a 2 percent rise from 2016

Article: https://www.dallasnews.com/business/real-estate/2018/01/25/d-fw-building-activity-topped-22-billion-2017

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Cord1936
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Re: DFW Economy

Postby Cord1936 » 01 Feb 2018 11:53

This relocation by CBRE Hotels from Houston to Dallas is a prime example of what is occurring on a much broader and larger context. The age old "struggle", if you will, between Houston and Dallas for supremacy has been decided ... Dallas already has and is pulling away from Houston in ever greater ways with each passing day.

The Dallas region is now 4th largest GDP in the nation (Houston falls from 4th to 6th), Dallas region has 22 Fortune 500's (Houston falls from 26 to 20), Dallas is literally number one in the nation in just about every major financial and economic metric (with Houston in many instances literally falling off the map).

Houston's role is number two in Texas and consequently the entire South, still quite important of course, but now must accept it has an ever more apparent supporting role to Dallas as the number one throughout the South and number 4 nationally.

The positions and roles of the two respective cities and regions have flipped. About the only major category that Houston now tops Dallas on is in its greater city population ...

CBRE Hotels Says, 'Adios, Houston' And 'Hola, Dallas'
CBRE Hotels South-Central To Pack Its Bags And Head North

by Jeremiah Jensen, Dallas BisNow, January 31, 2018

CBRE is moving its hospitality consulting and advisory services for the South-Central U.S. region from Houston to Dallas.

“Dallas is the quintessential location for focusing our services throughout the South-Central U.S. In addition to DFW’s centralized location, transportation hub and growing tourism, Dallas is home to many hotel franchises, representatives, management companies, developers and investors, as well as an essential financial market for our industry. This restructuring will enable us to expand our advisory services to ultimately better serve a broader range of our hotel clients,” CBRE Hotels Director, Consulting, Jeff Binford said in a statement.

The reason Dallas is the quintessential location is simple. Dallas is the busiest, biggest hotel market in Texas.

According to Marcus & Millichap research, Texas has the largest construction pipeline in the nation and out of all the Texas markets, Dallas has the largest pipeline of hotel rooms by far.

The data from the second half of 2017 puts Dallas at roughly 8,000 rooms in the pipeline and second place Houston has about 6,000 rooms in its pipeline. The report indicates this may hurt occupancy for a while, but it also says demand remains strong as occupancy in Texas trends in the mid 70% range, well above the national average of around 65%.

CBRE Hotels will work out of 2100 McKinney Ave., a 352K SF, Class-A property in Uptown.

Article: https://www.bisnow.com/dallas-ft-worth/news/hotel/cbre-hotels-says-saynara-houston-and-konnichiwa-dallas-84341?rt=53851&utm_source=MorningBrief&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=20180201_dallas-ft-worth_morningbrief&be=dallasdecodence%40aol.com

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Re: DFW Economy

Postby tamtagon » 01 Feb 2018 12:45

Glad to see references to the economic reach of Dallas expanded to South Central rather than Southwest. The reference may seem like a subtle change, but the reality is huge -- it's not just Texas, Oklahoma, New Mexico and part of Lousiana... it's Texas, Oklahoma, New Mexico, Lousiana, Arkansas, Kansas parts of Mississippi, Colorado.... growing!

Houston has lived through swings like this for decades. Exxon has been reported to expect tripled Permian Basin oil/gas production over the next five years, and Mexico is primed to finally turn back into a major oil/gas producing country -- both of these growth markets will be channeled through Houston.

I really want the renewable energy companies to move HQs to North Texas, Fort Worth being the ideal downtown setting for them.

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Re: DFW Economy

Postby Tucy » 01 Feb 2018 13:27

NM

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Cord1936
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Re: DFW Economy

Postby Cord1936 » 15 Mar 2018 08:08

I receive a weekly newsletter from Allie Beth Allman Real Estate that nearly always has very interesting and topical statistics for the area. The following three are from last weeks March 9th newsletter:

DFW: DFW is the state’s biggest hotel market, reports Source Strategies, raking in slightly over $3 billion in revenue in 2017. Austin posted the highest overall occupancy rate of 75% (DFW 70%). The hotel with the most revenue per-available-room per-night was Dallas’ Ritz-Carlton. The 1,511-room Gaylord Texan Resort and Convention Center took in the most overall revenue of nearly $89.1 million. Other Dallas hotels in the top five were the Hilton Anatole and the Omni Dallas.

DFW: Despite increasing mortgage rates and home prices, North Texas home sales rose 10% in February over last year, reports the Dallas Morning News. Real estate agents sold 7,188 preowned single-family homes last month, the highest February sales total ever for the area, according to NTREIS data. For the first two months of 2018, agents sold 7% more homes than the same period in 2017. The biggest increase so far is for homes priced from $200,000-$250,000. More than 17,500 homes were listed for sale entering March, up 6% from last year, but still woefully low.

DFW: DFW had more home sales in 2017 than any Texas metro area, according to a new TAR report, accounting for about a third of all home sales in the state. More than 102,000 preowned single-family homes were sold in the DFW area, up 3% from 2016. Builders sold around 32,000 new homes. Statewide, 336,502 homes were sold, up 4% for the year. The report noted that almost a third of homes sold were between $200,000-$300,000. Almost a quarter of buyers were between 45-54 years of age. Economists say the housing recovery that started in North Texas almost eight years ago still has momentum.

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Re: DFW Economy

Postby Cord1936 » 19 Mar 2018 08:41

Colliers: Dallas and Houston Were National Leaders in Medical Deals in 2017
from RealtyNewsReport.com, 03-19-18
...
In 2017, Atlanta was No. 1 in medical-related real estate deals with $1.1 billion in sales.

Los Angeles, with $973 million in sales, ranked second.

Dallas, with $893 million in sales was third. Houston ranked fourth with $495 million.
...
Article: http://realtynewsreport.com/2018/03/19/colliers-dallas-and-houston-were-national-leaders-in-medical-deals-in-2017/

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Re: DFW Economy

Postby Cord1936 » 23 Mar 2018 11:27

More Hyperscale Demand On The Way For Dallas Data Center Market
March 22, 2018, by Jeremiah Jensen, Bisnow Dallas

More hyperscale users are on their way to the Dallas-Fort Worth data center market in 2018 and 2019 (10 MW to 30 MW of extra demand estimated), according to CBRE's Data Center Solutions team. Excellent fundamentals, room to build, prime geography and low costs of electricity/development put DFW on shortlists for developers and investors everywhere.

“We hear about this all the time, [when] a client is on a search for data center space, and they don’t know exactly where they want to be, they don’t have to be in Northern Virginia for instance, Dallas is 95% of the time on that list,” CBRE Senior Vice President of Data Center Solutions Brant Bernet said.

Historically, DFW has been primarily an enterprise market (80% enterprise and 20% cloud as a colocation market), and the lion’s share of DFW’s excellent absorption numbers comes from enterprise users, which typically are smaller than hyperscale players. That makes its placement among the nation's data center markets an impressive feat — DFW has the third most absorption in the nation behind Northern Virginia and Silicon Valley whose absorption numbers get boosts from hyperscale users, according to CBRE’s data center team.

DFW is getting its own significant hyperscale players in the market, such as Facebook, that do not register in the data because they are privately held. Facebook’s Fort Worth data center has almost 100 megawatt of load in play already and is supposed to double. DFW’s total inventory, not including users like Facebook that own their space, is 252 MW, the second-largest in the nation, and 40 MW was in the pipeline at the end of 2017[/b], according to CBRE research.

“I think the same fundamentals that brought Facebook here will attract companies like AWS and Microsoft (aka hyperscale users) when the timing is right,” CBRE Associate, Data Center Solutions, Haynes Strader said. “Every co-location provider is positioning themselves to be able to accommodate a large cloud provider when the time is right.”

“Our prediction is that 2018, and certainly 2019, we’ll see more of those types of clients, the real hyperscale guys, find their way to Dallas,” Bernet said.
...
Article: https://www.bisnow.com/dallas-ft-worth/ ... %40aol.com

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Re: DFW Economy

Postby Cord1936 » 30 Mar 2018 16:15

Very interesting post from this week's weekly newsletter from Allie Beth Allman Real Estate (week ending 03-30-18):

DFW: With major corporate relocation in northern suburbs, support companies are settling in the urban core, especially the large millennial workforces. Uptown and Downtown are leasing both office and living space at a record pace. Deep Ellum and Farmers Market are popular residential areas, as are East Dallas and Knox Henderson. Apartment prices went up about 7% last year, responding to demand for amenities.

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Cord1936
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Re: DFW Economy

Postby Cord1936 » 31 Mar 2018 12:27

The Dallas area remains absolutely RED HOT!

Any worries or concerns about a pull back or slowdown are completely unfounded as the data for the first two months of 2018 indicate yet another record year of construction volume in both the commercial and residential sectors is unfolding before our eyes ... this on top of already two record years in a row (2016 & 2017)!!!

Surge in construction pushes D-FW building up 6 percent this year
Dallas Morning News, Steve Brown, Real Estate Editor, 03-29-18

A surge in February construction helped push Dallas-Fort Worth building this year ahead of 2017 levels.

New commercial building activity rose by 75 percent last month compared with February 2017, according to a new report Dodge Data & Analytics.

Residential construction starts were up 5 percent year over year.

Through the first two months of 2018, Dodge Data has recorded $3.5 billion in new residential and commercial construction in North Texas. That's 6 percent more than in the first two months of 2017.

D-FW set a new construction record with more than $22 billion in projects last year.

Only New York City had more construction activity, according to Dodge.
Image
Article: https://www.dallasnews.com/business/rea ... rcent-year

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Re: DFW Economy

Postby lakewoodhobo » 18 Apr 2018 13:17

6 Projects That Transformed Dallas Into A Global Powerhouse Over The Last 10 Years
https://www.bisnow.com/dallas-ft-worth/ ... years-8745

Not sure where to put this, but this dumb listicle gives way too much credit to individual projects like the Farmers Market and the Joule (we're a global city because of them, really?) and completely ignores things like lifting the Wright Amendment and DART service to DFW.

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Tivo_Kenevil
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Re: DFW Economy

Postby Tivo_Kenevil » 18 Apr 2018 13:36

Haha. Good laugh this article.

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Cord1936
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Re: DFW Economy

Postby Cord1936 » 25 Apr 2018 22:31

In high demand: D-FW among busiest U.S. areas when it comes to office leasing & construction
Steve Brown, Dallas Morning News, 04-24-18

North Texas was one of the top office leasing markets in the country in the first quarter and remains one of the busiest office building markets.

Only New York City had more net office leasing in the first three months of 2018, according to a new report by commercial property firm JLL.

More than 1.3 million square feet of D-FW net leasing was reported in the nationwide JLL office survey. New York was first with 1.6 million square feet of absorption and Washington, D.C. was ranked third with about 965,000 square feet of net leasing.

"As we enter the eighth year of this real estate cycle, Dallas-Fort Worth has shot to the top of the most in-demand office markets in the country," JLL analysts said.

North Texas ranked fourth for office construction in the first quarter, with about 7.5 million square feet of building space. That compares with more than 15 million square feet of construction in New York, the top office building market according to JLL.
...

Image
Article: https://www.dallasnews.com/business/real-estate/2018/04/24/new-york-d-fw-tops-us-office-space-demand

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Cord1936
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Re: DFW Economy

Postby Cord1936 » 25 Apr 2018 22:36

Houston Office Market Records 1.5 Million SF of Negative Absorption in First Quarter
RealtyNewsReport, 04-24-18

Meanwhile, while Dallas is the second busiest city in the nation for net office leasing in the first quarter of 2018 Houston suffers one of the worst quarters in its office leasing history.

With the Houston office market recording 1.5 million square feet of negative absorption in 1Q18, it makes it one of the toughest quarters ever in Houston's history.

Houston office vacancy has now risen to 20.1% ... up from 18.5% a year earlier.

http://realtynewsreport.com/2018/04/24/colliers-houston-office-market-records-1-5-million-sf-of-negative-absorption-in-first-quarter/

DPatel304
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Re: DFW Economy

Postby DPatel304 » 25 Apr 2018 23:04

Thanks for the updates!

Definitely a shame to see Houston going through such a slump. I have no doubt they will eventually bounce back, but, for now, it seems like it's full speed ahead for DFW.

I'd say the past decade, DFW shared the spotlight with Houston and Austin when it came to record growth. I feel like this next decade, DFW will really break out and outshine the rest of Texas and take the spotlight for itself. The numbers are already there, but, it will probably be a few years before the effects are actually felt/seen.

We've already seen the numbers have been slumping for Houston for a while, and now Austin seems to be reaching the stage where they going through some major growing pains. I don't really have any numbers to back this up, but, having lived there for a little over a year, I've seen a few major issues that, I think, will have a negative effect on growth (traffic/congestion, rising property values, lack of good public transportation). I realize that DFW also has all of these problems, but they aren't quite as bad as Austin's yet, and, more importantly, I believe we are better equipped to deal with each and every one of them.

The only thing that, I think, could stop DFW from seeing some insane growth this next decade is some sort of nation-wide recession or something equally catastrophic.

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Re: DFW Economy

Postby Matt777 » 26 Apr 2018 01:00

It's crazy how so many midrise and highrise condo and office projects are getting approved and started in Houston despite the weakening economics of the area and low absorption rates. Whereas in the arguably strongest multifamily and office market (DFW), basically no decent highrise condo projects to speak of and office buildings can't be built without heavy pre-leasing. Nothing on spec.

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Tivo_Kenevil
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Re: DFW Economy

Postby Tivo_Kenevil » 26 Apr 2018 14:25

Matt777 wrote:It's crazy how so many midrise and highrise condo and office projects are getting approved and started in Houston despite the weakening economics of the area and low absorption rates. Whereas in the arguably strongest multifamily and office market (DFW), basically no decent highrise condo projects to speak of and office buildings can't be built without heavy pre-leasing. Nothing on spec.


Houston's always going to have more projects within their city limits. They have 600+ sq. Miles worth of projects that they account for.

That's why you gotta look at the metro numbers. That tells the real story.

Tnexster
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Re: DFW Economy

Postby Tnexster » 26 Apr 2018 21:53

Maybe their philosophy is to build it and they will come.

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tamtagon
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Re: DFW Economy

Postby tamtagon » 26 Apr 2018 22:21

Houston falters when the oil sinks, Houston Booms when the oil rises.... and the oil is rising again. It'll come with an interesting new twist this time, petro-exports. Houston is fine.

Tnexster
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Re: DFW Economy

Postby Tnexster » 27 Apr 2018 22:00

Yeah the export deal is a big one. Will be curious to see how that plays out.

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Re: DFW Economy

Postby tamtagon » 29 Apr 2018 14:18

Relatively, Corpus is the one that's likely to go all crazy with the liquefied natural gas exports, though Houston, Beaumont, Lake Charles area will each embark higher volume, it's just 'new' to Corpus. I don't like that fossil fuel still generate too much pollution, but it's just so potent. Hopefully petro-exports will elevate the Port of Corpus to the next level; the state could use another massive point of entry, South Texas certainly needs some moxy.... and the only nice beaches in the state roll south of Corpus. The Laredo-San Antonio-Corpus Christi trade triangle could challenge and eventually rival volumes out of Houston.

anyway, in my Fantasy Industry League, I've got T-Mobile/Sprint moving to Fort Worth (maybe Las Colinas) as the merger settles:

https://www.dallasnews.com/business/tec ... tt-verizon

Sprint, T-Mobile reach $26.5 billion deal to take on Dallas-based AT&T, Verizon

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Cord1936
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Re: DFW Economy

Postby Cord1936 » 04 May 2018 15:08

The Port of Houston is booming, and it is benefiting Texas at large (especially the Dallas region!)
by Catie Dixon, Managing Editor, Houston BisNow.com, May 03, 2018

The port increased inbound containers by 21.6% last year, the largest leap in the country, Colliers reports in its 2018 Industrial Seaport Outlook. Houston has been an export powerhouse, and 2017 was the first time in more than a decade that imports exceeded exports.

The shift is coming at a good time — Colliers principal Gary Mabray said potential tariffs on outbound petrochemical products could cause billions of dollars of [negative] impact, whereas tariffs on inbound steel products likely will only have a minimal impact on volume.

“Import volumes are growing at the Port of Houston because of the port's excellent logistics capabilities, as well as the need for retailers to keep higher inventories in warehouses to service Texas and the rest of the southern U.S. growing population,” Colliers National Director of Industrial Research James Breeze said.

The Port of Houston’s activity is driving industrial demand in Houston, particularly in the far east submarket, but also in Dallas-Fort Worth, where many of the imports are funneled via truck or rail. (For example, Randalls relocated its distribution footprint from Houston to Dallas.)

Dallas led the U.S. in 2017 for net absorption, with Colliers recording 23.3M SF leased up and 27.6M SF delivered. The Metroplex is on a high of 30 straight quarters of positive net absorption.

Houston was seventh in the nation for deliveries last year, with 8.5M SF completed, according to Colliers.
...
Article: https://www.bisnow.com/houston/news/industrial/port-of-houstons-record-import-leap-helping-texas-industrial-88021?utm_source=MorningBrief&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=20180504_dallas-ft-worth_morningbrief&be=dallasdecodence%40aol.com&email=dallasdecodence%40aol.com

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Re: DFW Economy

Postby Tnexster » 04 May 2018 21:33

Huge job growth is still driving the D-FW real estate market into 2018

https://www.dallasnews.com/business/rea ... arket-2018

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Re: DFW Economy

Postby Tnexster » 20 May 2018 10:10

Sublease office space is soaring in Dallas-Fort Worth. Should we be worried?

https://www.dallasnews.com/business/rea ... in-hunters

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Cord1936
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Re: DFW Economy

Postby Cord1936 » 23 May 2018 12:57

Why More People Are Moving to Dallas for Work
Glassdoor says the North Texas job market is still hot.

By Alex Macon, D Magazine, May 21, 2018 2:58 PM

Article: https://www.dmagazine.com/frontburner/2018/05/why-more-people-are-moving-to-dallas-for-work/

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Cord1936
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Re: DFW Economy

Postby Cord1936 » 23 May 2018 13:02

Dallas-Fort Worth Trails Only San Francisco, Seattle In Q1 Net Office Absorption
Kimberly Reeves, Bisnow Austin-San Antonio, May 18, 2018

The Dallas-Fort Worth office market is seeing sustained, demand-driven growth with net absorption that rivals the top office markets in the country, according to the latest report from Transwestern.

DFW net absorption numbers are behind only San Francisco and Seattle — and ahead of San Jose/Silicon Valley — for Q1. Flip those locations for four-quarter trailing numbers — the Dallas-Fort Worth office market soaked up 5.5M SF of office space in the last 12 months, second only to San Jose-Silicon Valley, which posted just over 7M SF in net office space absorption.

“This June will mark the ninth year of economic recovery since the last recession,” Transwestern Director of Research Ryan Tharp said. “[Dallas] still has about 8.3M SF under construction, and I think that says a lot about how optimistic developers are.”

DFW’s office boom began around six years ago, when office construction began to rise rapidly, especially in the Far North, Uptown and Las Colinas areas.

Full article: https://www.bisnow.com/dallas-ft-worth/news/office/dallas-fort-worth-trails-only-san-francisco-seattle-in-q1-net-office-absorption-88627?utm_source=MorningBrief&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=20180522_dallas-ft-worth_morningbrief&be=dallasdecodence%40aol.com&email=dallasdecodence%40aol.com

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Re: DFW Economy

Postby Cord1936 » 26 May 2018 12:53

When the biggest dog of Houston focuses on growing logistics in Dallas you know the logistics momentum here is enormous!

Hines Earmarks $600M For Logistics Real Estate, With DFW Topping The Wish List
May 08, 2018 Catie Dixon, Dallas BisNow Managing Editor
...
Dallas-Fort Worth is one of its top targets — Tamlyn joined Hines last year to oversee the company's expansion into the hot Dallas industrial market. It owns about 2M SF of logistics product in the Metroplex with its acquisition last week of DFW East Logistics Center. The three-building, 260K SF shallow bay industrial park in Irving is 15% leased.

Industrial has been thriving in Dallas. Vacancy dropped to 5.8% in Q1 on the heels of 30 straight quarters of positive net absorption. Logistics is a big force behind leasing, with consumer goods users driving 3.9M SF of absorption in Q1. Development has been active — 19M SF is in the pipeline — but nearly half of it is pre-leased.

Article: https://www.bisnow.com/dallas-ft-worth/ ... um=Browser

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clcrash19
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Re: DFW Economy

Postby clcrash19 » 26 May 2018 14:30

man we are kicking houston's ass right now in economy and growth.. the next five years could only widen the gap between houston metro and dfw.

Tnexster
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Re: DFW Economy

Postby Tnexster » 26 May 2018 16:46

clcrash19 wrote:man we are kicking houston's ass right now in economy and growth.. the next five years could only widen the gap between houston metro and dfw.


I wonder how much of that gap will close if oil stays up fairly high? It has been fascinating to watch the two metros growth patterns evolve.

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Cord1936
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Re: DFW Economy

Postby Cord1936 » 09 Jun 2018 12:17

Tnexster wrote:
clcrash19 wrote:man we are kicking houston's ass right now in economy and growth.. the next five years could only widen the gap between houston metro and dfw.


I wonder how much of that gap will close if oil stays up fairly high? It has been fascinating to watch the two metros growth patterns evolve.

^^^^^^^
Even if oil were to go back to the go-go days of $100+ per barrel (which it will not) the bounce back will be much more muted than in years past ... Houston has been whacked hard several times in a row now from oil busts and this time it has changed the mindset ... "less is more" is the new mantra.

The vast majority of the 9.5 million square feet of sublease office space in Houston is from oil companies downsizing. In the aftermath of this Houston office market bloodbath oil companies are reducing their square foot per employee ratio down by an average of 40% ... and in some cases exceeding 40% ... being much more conservative this go around.

JLL: Energy Companies Taking Conservative Approach to Office Leasing This Time Around; SF Per Employee Down 40%
Realty News Report, Houston, TX, 06-06-18

Article: http://realtynewsreport.com/2018/06/06/ ... e-down-40/

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Cord1936
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Re: DFW Economy

Postby Cord1936 » 13 Jun 2018 13:30

Not sure where else to put this so posted it here. Interesting article about the similarities between Dallas and Dubai.

Image
The Beck Group's Uber Skyport Concept: The Hive
Courtesy of The Beck Group


The Sister City Qualities Of Dallas And Dubai
Kimberly Reeves, Bisnow Austin-San Antonio, June 13, 2018

Dallas and Dubai were both picked as initial test sites for Uber's "flying taxi" project — along with Los Angeles. Frequent traveler Grant Pruitt, co-founder of Whitebox Real Estate, wasn't surprised at the choice, as he can list a bunch of similarities between the home of J.R. Ewing and United Arab Emirates' luxury capital.
...
Pruitt said the fact the two cities are so similar is one reason why he wasn't surprised Dubai and Dallas were both on the Uber list. Dallas and Dubai — and even Los Angeles — are the type of cities ready to be first, biggest or best, he said.

"It just made sense," Pruitt said.
...
Full article: https://www.bisnow.com/dallas-ft-worth/news/commercial-real-estate/the-sister-city-qualities-of-dallas-and-dubai-89496?be=dallasdecodence%40aol.com&utm_source=Newsletter&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=wed-13-jun-2018-000000-0400_dallas-fort-worth-re

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Cord1936
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Re: DFW Economy

Postby Cord1936 » 18 Jun 2018 19:58

All of the important economic data is suggesting instead of a slowdown in the Dallas area economy things are actually picking up ... and strengthening above the already red hot levels we've been seeing:

Driven by In-Migration, Dallas-Fort Worth Population Growth Tops the Nation
Demographic Trends Boosting Commercial Real Estate in the Metroplex
By David Kahn, CoStar Real Estate Group, June 15, 2018

Dallas-Fort Worth has added about 1.1 million new residents since 2010, about the same number as Houston.
...
The most recent numbers are excellent for Dallas-Fort Worth.

According to the U.S. Census, D-FW added 146,000 new residents in 2017, topping second place Houston by more than 50,000 people.

More importantly, the most recent job numbers were incredible, with nominal job growth of about 125,000 year-over-year, as of March 2018.

This marks an acceleration in job growth compared to previous months. Dallas-Fort Worth was already the strongest job market in the country: now it’s even stronger.

The combination of outstanding population growth, in-migration and job growth creates a virtuous cycle for the metro’s economy, and helps drive demand for commercial real estate. Strong population growth, job growth and in-migration should continue to power the Dallas-Fort Worth commercial real estate industry for years to come.

Article: http://www.costar.com/News/Article/Driv ... ion/201928

Tnexster
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Location: Dallas

Re: DFW Economy

Postby Tnexster » 18 Jun 2018 21:06

There is a ton of growth here and I don't really feel like we are overbuilding, if anything we could probably see more just to keep up.

Tnexster
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Re: DFW Economy

Postby Tnexster » 24 Jun 2018 10:11

When will North Texas' booming economy come crashing down? Here's what history says

https://www.dallasnews.com/business/eco ... urn-dallas

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tamtagon
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Re: DFW Economy

Postby tamtagon » 25 Jun 2018 08:01

Is that the second or third blog looking for the end of growth?

Tnexster
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Location: Dallas

Re: DFW Economy

Postby Tnexster » 25 Jun 2018 21:30

tamtagon wrote:Is that the second or third blog looking for the end of growth?


I lose count but this isn't the first time the end was called. I remember not that long ago when 2018 was the end of the cycle.

DPatel304
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Re: DFW Economy

Postby DPatel304 » 26 Jun 2018 02:02

I'm pretty sure since about 2014, I've heard someone say the North Texas will 'slow down', yet here we are going strong in 2018.

Not that I am saying this new article is wrong, but if you predict an economic slowdown every year, then eventually one of those economists will be correct.

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Cord1936
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Re: DFW Economy

Postby Cord1936 » 26 Jun 2018 14:07

For every doom and gloom prognostication there are many more that see the glass full and remaining that way into the foreseeable future ... facts are facts and there is always a doom and gloom pessimist at the ready to spew their negativity! Ha ha!

CRE Opinion: The DFW Economy and its Drivers
With the fundamentals of all real estate classes performing well in DFW,
we are on most investors “buy” list.

By Steve Thelen, Published in D Magazine, Commercial Real Estate, June 21, 2018 4:44 PM
...
Our research shows that, thanks to a number of factors in place, North Texas bucks most of those trends. In fact, our market sees no major signs of slowing down in the immediate future.

Probably the biggest headline, we expect 96,000 new jobs in 2018 with no slowdown in sight. DFW is running at a 2.7 percent annual increase, outpacing New York at 1.4 percent and 1.6 percent for Los Angeles.
...
With the fundamentals of all real estate classes performing well in DFW, we are on most investors “buy” list.
...
And don’t forget about the engines that drive our growth—access to two world-class airports, no state income taxes, central time zone, business friendly climate and overall low cost of living. With these attributes, DFW is historically like a huge vacuum in a down cycle. The region draws companies looking to lower costs and recruit quality workers. This will continue to be a buffer for us against a strong downturn.
...
If we continue our growth path, it will certainly be a long run. But as a friend in oil and gas reminded me, “Most of our industries are a little like being a farmer. Every several years you are going to have a drought—so plan for it!” Some level of drought will certainly hit us but it looks like we have several more years of runway!

Article: https://www.dmagazine.com/commercial-real-estate/2018/06/cre-opinion-the-dfw-economy-and-its-drivers/

DPatel304
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Re: DFW Economy

Postby DPatel304 » 27 Jun 2018 15:50

The numbers definitely look good for North Texas. From my own personal observations, it seems like the quantity of projects has declined, but, at the same time, quality has really increased.

I guess it's hard to maintain the same level of quantity we had before when we were getting a lot of low-quality mid-rises that looked boring and cheap, so I wouldn't classify less quantity as a 'slowdown' but it seems like we are entering a new phase where each project really has to step up its game to justify the costs.

I will say I don't have any numbers to back up my claims, so I could be wrong about the 'quantity' part, but this just seems to be what I have observed recently.

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Warrior2015
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Re: DFW Economy

Postby Warrior2015 » 27 Jun 2018 18:17

DPatel304 wrote:The numbers definitely look good for North Texas. From my own personal observations, it seems like the quantity of projects has declined, but, at the same time, quality has really increased.

I guess it's hard to maintain the same level of quantity we had before when we were getting a lot of low-quality mid-rises that looked boring and cheap, so I wouldn't classify less quantity as a 'slowdown' but it seems like we are entering a new phase where each project really has to step up its game to justify the costs.

I will say I don't have any numbers to back up my claims, so I could be wrong about the 'quantity' part, but this just seems to be what I have observed recently.

I agree that the quality of projects has gotten better. I wish Ross Avenue would have better quality than what has gone up. It looks cheap

cowboyeagle05
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Re: DFW Economy

Postby cowboyeagle05 » 28 Jun 2018 09:00

^#truth haste has been the name of the game on Ross. Get it done before some neighborhood group makes a stink or the city starts paying attention.

DPatel304
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Re: DFW Economy

Postby DPatel304 » 28 Jun 2018 10:44

Definitely agree with you there. I used to envious Ross Ave. as being this grand corridor that would be great for pedestrians/bikers and run from the CBD all the way to Lower Greenville, but, so far, the development facing this street has been extremely poor.

I suppose the street itself could still become bike/pedestrian friendly, but it won't be that interesting of a street to travel down.


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