Hurricane Harvey

[homeworld1031tx]

What do you guys think the effects of Houston's flooding might be on the local economy, short term? I have been looking for housing new the Lovers and 75 recently (The Village), and from what I can gather, vacancy in that area is less than 5pct. Anecdotally, rents in that area have risen ~50 percent in the last 5 years (a unit my friend rented on 12 month terms in The Village Bend for 750 in 2012 is now 1100) and I've afraid that if I wait a few weeks to pull the trigger (which is something I wanted to do because I'm starting a new job in that time frame), I'm worried that even a minor outflow of people from Houston (even as few at 25,000) could significantly alter the rental landscape in Dallas.

[LongonBigD]

I think you might be on to something about "Houston outflow." I am remembering the same effect with Katrina. People came here to get shelter from the storm and figured out what a good thing we have here vs where they came from. There is a story in the DMN today about a family who has already decided not to go back. They are sick of fighting the floods.

We will see. I'm not sure how long it will take to see the impact. These people will be moving here without jobs, so probably staying with friends and relations to start.

[muncien]

This very thing was mentioned on the news this morning... One of the anchors, speaking to the reported said 'when they go back'... to which the reporter immediately responded 'IF they go back' and then went into detail about several folks who were displaced saying they had no intention of going back. Sure, that was just a small sampling, but I wouldn't be surprised at all if that turns out to be a sizable number in the end.

[Tnexster]

I think the outflow will be significant, in part just because of the length of time it will take to rebuild and if you lost everything would you want to go back and try again? I heard of one family that escaped their 1,000 home subdivision in a kayak with nothing but their kids and the pets. Everything they own including cars is now completely submerged along with 1,000 other homes around them. The only way into the house at this point would be with a diving suit. Start doing the math. Would you even want to rebuild knowing you could lose it all again?

Beyond that what does this do to Houston from a business perspective? Will jobs relocate temporarily and if they do will they come back? Epic flooding, total losses, water filled with gators, snakes, and islands of fire ants floating around you, I can imagine a lot of people will leave, the question is where will they go? Dallas is already at capacity and we don't really have the ability to build faster, especially if a ton or resources go into rebuilding Houston.

[tamtagon]

I think the only way Houston snaps out of this in typical boom & bust Houston fashion is revolutionary zoning. I don't know that any population center could truly accommodate a 500 year event like we've got now, but the flooding from a 10 inch 24 hour flash has been locally devastating in Metro Houston for some time. I'm certain there's a way to house 5 million people in Harris County, IF the San Jacinto River basin has the room and slope it needs to drain.

Perhaps this is when the State of Texas wakes up and treats the Trinity River basin with respect.

Anyway, New Orleans did not recover from Katrina to it's previous state. While Houston certainly has been more potent, the next decade will see the I-35 corridor stripping potential.

[cowboyeagle05]

Also to keep in mind Trump recently removed regulations that will now enable more flood prone areas to be developed. Lots of private property developers have been pushing to remove such regulations that make low lying areas undevelopable. I am not trying to politicize the issue just that developers tend to not shy away from developing despite the potential for floods.

[I45Tex]

October 1994
October 1998
June 2001
September 2008
May 2015
April 2016
August 2017

Major Houston floods just since I've lived there. Places that were designed not to flood now flood because of thirty miles of miraculously cheap housing upstream hyped by "opportunity urbanism" boosters, cheap because it externalizes to FEMA, to charities, and to NFIP most costs of (not) maintaining environmental quality. It more than sucks to see people lured there by the chance to get a foot on the ladder of more take-home income / lower cost of living, only to get wiped out by the place's flawed philosophy. I hope it finally does stop the profit-taking presses this time.

[tamtagon]

I think the outflow will be significant, in part just because of the length of time it will take to rebuild and if you lost everything would you want to go back and try again? I heard of one family that escaped their 1,000 home subdivision in a kayak with nothing but their kids and the pets. Everything they own including cars is now completely submerged along with 1,000 other homes around them. The only way into the house at this point would be with a diving suit. Start doing the math. Would you even want to rebuild knowing you could lose it all again?

Beyond that what does this do to Houston from a business perspective? Will jobs relocate temporarily and if they do will they come back? Epic flooding, total losses, water filled with gators, snakes, and islands of fire ants floating around you, I can imagine a lot of people will leave, the question is where will they go? Dallas is already at capacity and we don't really have the ability to build faster, especially if a ton or resources go into rebuilding Houston.

This was on facebook this evening:

Retweeted patrick kennedy (@WalkableDFW):
I've heard we can expect as many as 500,000 permanent evacuees to DFW. We've gotta get to building and do so sustainably.

500,000 is a lot

I'll be disappointed and frankly a little pissed if atrophy really takes hold of Houston. Much of the benefit would be along I-35, but well, whatever. I guess we'll see. But three years in a row, and the worst one so far.

[DPatel304]

It's not too surprising that people are considering a permanent move. Houston and Dallas are very similar and not all that far from each other, so it's not a drastic change in lifestyle. Economically, it seems DFW has had the advantage the past year or so, and I don't see that changing anytime soon.

I'm concerned as to what this will mean for Houston long term and also how the sudden influx of people will affect DFW (which is already in the midst of a huge real-estate boom).

[Dbrock]

I think the city of Houston will rebound quicker than some may think.

[I45Tex]

And that would be bad, because as long as business continues as usual, places that didn't even flood this time will flood at less precipitation next time as the prairie further upstream continues to get paved over. Before they bounce back they need to get real. The reason they can make a profit and still have low prices per square foot on new construction is that they are foisting their margin, every time the bill comes due, onto government, churches and charities. That shouldn't be the American way.

[Tivo_Kenevil]

I think the city of Houston will rebound quicker than some may think.

They'll be fine.

[Cord1936]

Moody's Analytics estimates destruction to Southeast Texas at about $75 billion so far:

Harvey's impact: This is how much it's going to cost Houston
Jack Witthaus, Houston Business Journal, Aug 29, 2017, 4:45pm CDT

Full article: https://www.bizjournals.com/houston/news/2017/08/29/harveys-impact-this-is-how-much-its-going-to-cost.html

[Cord1936]

[Tivo_Kenevil]

Texans helping Texans .Love it.

[Cord1936]

And the City of Dallas is putting its money behind its rescue efforts to aid the coastal devastation:

Dallas City Council Approves $8 Million in Emergency Funds to Help Pay For Evacuee Shelters, Relief Efforts
By Tim Ciesco, nbcdfw.com, 3:39pm, 08-30-17

http://www.nbcdfw.com/news/local/Dallas-City-Council-Approves-8-Million-in-Emergency-Funds-to-Help-Pay-For-Evacuee-Shelters-Relief-Efforts-442264783.html

[Cord1936]

Moody's Analytics estimates destruction to Southeast Texas at about $75 billion so far:

Harvey's impact: This is how much it's going to cost Houston
Jack Witthaus, Houston Business Journal, Aug 29, 2017, 4:45pm CDT

Full article: https://www.bizjournals.com/houston/news/2017/08/29/harveys-impact-this-is-how-much-its-going-to-cost.html

The man who accurately predicted the ultimate cost of Katrina has weighed in on Harvey.

He thinks that the damage from Hurricane Harvey could be “mind boggling” and rival or even exceed Katrina. Estimates he has seen from some major Wall Street banks are too timid, he said.

Katrina's cost: $125 billion.

Economist who nailed the cost of Katrina thinks the final bill for Harvey could be larger
by Greg Robb, Bloomberg MarketWatch, Published: Aug 30, 2017 5:12 p.m. ET

Full article: http://www.marketwatch.com/story/economist-who-nailed-cost-of-katrina-thinks-the-final-bill-for-harvey-could-be-larger-2017-08-30

[The_Overdog]

I've heard we can expect as many as 500,000 permanent evacuees to DFW. We've gotta get to building and do so sustainably.

The stats I heard said 100,000 homes damaged. Even if that's off by 50,000, that's only about 250,000 -300,000 people and some of those homes can be repaired and aren't a total loss. I don't think that many will stay in Dallas, so I'd bet closer to 1/5 of that number. Still quite a few.

[tamtagon]

Harvey Thread Split from DFW Economy thread.

[tamtagon]

I think the city of Houston will rebound quicker than some may think.

They'll be fine.

I think Houston will be recover from the flood just fine. This time will take longer, obviously since there was twice as much rain covering more than twice the area as last time.

I don't know that the population center will recover as such a powerful relocation magnet, though. Like, I45Tex said, complete, full recovery across all metrics without actual sustainability changes will only mean each subsequent floods will be worse.

Urban growth boundaries -- actually the establishment of urban managed wilderness areas -- are a mandate. The opportunity Dallas to employee the Trinity River has never been more promising, exponentially more promising than any of the past dreams to condition the river into a barge highway from the gulf. The opportunity is now for clean drinking water and improved quality of life in DFW and Houston.

[Tnexster]

How Hurricane Harvey Will Affect Texas Apartments, Hotels And Labor


https://www.bisnow.com/dallas-ft-worth/ ... t-worth-re

[Tnexster]

More than a quarter of Houston-area's commercial property likely impacted by storm

https://www.dallasnews.com/business/rea ... cted-storm

"Unfortunately, the number of displaced residents could be far larger than current media reports indicate," CoStar Group Founder and Chief Executive Officer Andrew Florance said in a new report. "Our property by property review of the apartment buildings in the floodplain reveals an outsized share are low to moderate income households, including those in Southwest Houston where the bayous have overflowed."

[Tnexster]

After Harvey's destruction, will a new and different Houston emerge?

https://www.dallasnews.com/news/harvey/ ... ton-emerge

[tamtagon]

People in Victoria still do not have clean water.

[Tucy]

People in Victoria still do not have clean water.

Neither do people in Beaumont.

[Tnexster]

Hurricanes, climate factor heavily into corporate relocation decisions, experts say

https://www.bizjournals.com/dallas/news ... orate.html

Houston’s record rainfall and flooding triggered by Hurricane Harvey will likely make Dallas-Fort Worth even more attractive to relocating and expanding companies, economists and site selectors say.

North Texas and Houston routinely compete when companies are looking to move or expand, including corporate headquarters and other high-profile, job-creating projects.

The havoc of Harvey highlights Houston's proximity to the coast and the risks that come with it, Bernard Weinstein, a Southern Methodist University economist, said in an interview with the Dallas Business Journal.

[Cord1936]

After Harvey, will Houston learn from its mistakes?
By Nick Anderson, TribTalk, Sept. 11, 2017

This political cartoon is based on a 2016 investigation by The Texas Tribune and ProPublica into how unchecked development has worsened the Bayou City's flooding problems. The investigation found that many Houston-area officials deny that long-standing policies allowing construction in Houston's high-risk floodplains — coupled with the paving over of wetlands — have increased the region's vulnerability.

Article: https://www.tribtalk.org/2017/09/11/after-harvey-will-houston-learn-from-its-mistakes/

[Cord1936]

Houston’s Anything-Goes Business Model Under Siege After Harvey
By Christopher Flavelle and David Wethe, Bloomberg.com, September 14, 2017, 4:00 AM CDT

Article: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-09-14/houston-s-anything-goes-business-model-under-siege-after-harvey

[Tnexster]

Will memories of Hurricane Harvey scare business away from Houston?

https://www.dallasnews.com/news/harvey/ ... ay-houston

[Tnexster]

Even after Harvey, Houston keeps adding new homes in flood plains

https://www.houstonchronicle.com/news/h ... o-16286100

[itsjrd1964]

Even after Harvey, Houston keeps adding new homes in flood plains

https://www.houstonchronicle.com/news/h ... o-16286100

I guess it will take 2 or 3 more Harvey/Katrina-like storms to finally get oxygen to some brains down there. Just amazing.

[Tivo_Kenevil]

Hmmm... Better flood insurance.

[Tucy]

Is it really bad to allow building in flood zones? As long as the buildings are built to withstand likely/possible high waters (appropriate elevation, etc), I don't think there's a problem. FWIW, I believe most cities, including Dallas, allow buildings to be constructed in flood zones.

[Tnexster]

Is it really bad to allow building in flood zones? As long as the buildings are built to withstand likely/possible high waters (appropriate elevation, etc), I don't think there's a problem. FWIW, I believe most cities, including Dallas, allow buildings to be constructed in flood zones.

True, look at West Dallas and Design District, when we get enough rain those levees could run over the top. It has happened and will happen again at some point. Would you build a house where you can walk out in the street and see a levee at the end of your street? A lot of people. Maybe it's no different than building a house near the beach on the gulf coast.

[tamtagon]

I've always wondered if there's public-private project potential in a structure outside and mirroring the levees. Levee side of the structure would set a moisture barrier 30 feet below and 30 feet above ground level while the north side of the structure is habitable for whatever purpose adjacent Design & Warehouse Districts need. Future growth just north of the levees could locate all parking in such a structure. Trinity River Park parking, TRP maintenance facilities, water treatment.... something along those lines.

[flyswatter]

If you're willing to live in a flood plain, you better have good flood insurance...Houston does not have strong flood mitigation, mostly due to the urbanized flat terrain and low elevation. A lot of neighborhoods have the houses higher than the roads, so that the roads flood first. I'm sure these neighborhoods will follow the same idea.

[dch526]

Here's a good article that breaks down the new floodplain development regulations for unincorporated Harris County.

https://www.bisnow.com/houston/news/construction-development/how-harris-countys-new-flood-plain-regulations-will-impact-construction-83466

Both Class I and II permits have raised the minimum finished floor elevation required by the county. Class II permits will now require pier and beam foundations and additional wind design requirements. That means no more slab on grade construction, a standard in the industry. Mechanical and electrical units will have to be elevated to the first floor.

Requiring foundations to be constructed with pier and beam allows water to pass through and be detained beneath the foundation, instead of flowing over a concrete slab on the ground, Pickering said. Pier and beam foundation construction is a more complicated and costly method of construction.

Harris County's old criteria allowed for finished floor elevation to be at the 100-year level plus 18 inches. The new regulations require the lowest finished floor to be at the 500-year flood level plus 36 inches. That means in the floodway, new construction will have to be at least twice as high. The cumulative effect pushes projects up to eight feet higher than previously required.

This is Houston's

Currently, homeowners in the 100-year floodplain are required to have flood insurance and build new homes 1 foot above the floodplain. Turner’s proposal will increase that to 2 feet and expand it to homes in the 500-year floodplain.

The drive to include the 500-year floodplain — where there is only supposed to be a 0.2 percent chance of flooding each year — came after homes in that floodplain flooded in three consecutive years. During Harvey, a third of homes in the 500-year floodplain were damaged by flooding and, according to a city study, 84 percent of the structures in the 100-year or 500-year floodplains that flooded during Harvey may have avoided damage if the proposed regulations had been in place.

https://www.texastribune.org/2018/04/04/houston-city-council-approves-changes-floodplain-regulations-narrow-vo/

[Tucy]

Here's a good article that breaks down the new floodplain development regulations for unincorporated Harris County.

https://www.bisnow.com/houston/news/construction-development/how-harris-countys-new-flood-plain-regulations-will-impact-construction-83466

Both Class I and II permits have raised the minimum finished floor elevation required by the county. Class II permits will now require pier and beam foundations and additional wind design requirements. That means no more slab on grade construction, a standard in the industry. Mechanical and electrical units will have to be elevated to the first floor.

Requiring foundations to be constructed with pier and beam allows water to pass through and be detained beneath the foundation, instead of flowing over a concrete slab on the ground, Pickering said. Pier and beam foundation construction is a more complicated and costly method of construction.

Harris County's old criteria allowed for finished floor elevation to be at the 100-year level plus 18 inches. The new regulations require the lowest finished floor to be at the 500-year flood level plus 36 inches. That means in the floodway, new construction will have to be at least twice as high. The cumulative effect pushes projects up to eight feet higher than previously required.

This is Houston's

Currently, homeowners in the 100-year floodplain are required to have flood insurance and build new homes 1 foot above the floodplain. Turner’s proposal will increase that to 2 feet and expand it to homes in the 500-year floodplain.

The drive to include the 500-year floodplain — where there is only supposed to be a 0.2 percent chance of flooding each year — came after homes in that floodplain flooded in three consecutive years. During Harvey, a third of homes in the 500-year floodplain were damaged by flooding and, according to a city study, 84 percent of the structures in the 100-year or 500-year floodplains that flooded during Harvey may have avoided damage if the proposed regulations had been in place.

https://www.texastribune.org/2018/04/04/houston-city-council-approves-changes-floodplain-regulations-narrow-vo/

The linked article says that Houston's new regulations (very similar to the new Harris County regulations) went into effect September 1.