Dallas Fort Worth Urban Forum

What is a suburb today?

Tnexster
Posts: 672
Joined: 22 Oct 2016 16:33
Location: Dallas

What is a suburb today?

Postby Tnexster » 09 Dec 2016 12:45

Frisco Chamber president: 'Dallas is our suburb'

http://www.bizjournals.com/dallas/news/ ... elker.html

Do you view Frisco as a suburb of Dallas or as its own city?

Jokingly, whenever I’m at a convention out of town or visiting folks in other states, I say “I’m from Frisco, Texas.” If I get that look, I say “If you don’t know where Frisco is, Dallas is our suburb 20 miles south.”

User avatar
texasstar
Posts: 27
Joined: 18 Oct 2016 22:39

Re: What is a suburb today?

Postby texasstar » 09 Dec 2016 14:05

He's a funny guy.

User avatar
Austin55
Posts: 23
Joined: 21 Oct 2016 00:02
Contact:

Re: What is a suburb today?

Postby Austin55 » 08 Jan 2017 19:47

I'll bet he think's he's a real great comedian.

To answer the question - I'd consider any city which has an established urban core to be excluded from the suburb definition. I'm sure others opinions will vary on this. To me, Dallas, Fort Worth and Denton are the only places I've spent much time that don't [*]feel like suburbs. Certainly bits and pieces of other cities around feel like proper cities, but just lack that defining characteristic somewhere in there.

User avatar
tanzoak
Posts: 134
Joined: 18 Dec 2016 19:15

Re: What is a suburb today?

Postby tanzoak » 09 Jan 2017 01:23

It's interesting to see where those 121/DNT area workers live: mostly in the immediate area of Frisco and Plano, as well as other places north of the office space in McKinney and Little Elm.
Image

Compare that to those working in Greater Downtown, where there's a clear drop-off at Northwest Highway and then again more notably at Bush Turnpike.
Image

I bet all this Frisco development just further divides the labor market. Increased traffic will make it even less appealing to drive north on the DNT, and more development north of Legacy West will be even further away from the jobs hubs down south.

User avatar
tanzoak
Posts: 134
Joined: 18 Dec 2016 19:15

Re: What is a suburb today?

Postby tanzoak » 09 Jan 2017 01:35

I should note that the colors on those maps are only relative to each other within each map.. they can't be compared across maps due to difference in scales.

User avatar
Austin55
Posts: 23
Joined: 21 Oct 2016 00:02
Contact:

Re: What is a suburb today?

Postby Austin55 » 09 Jan 2017 18:53

Beautiful maps and interesting information.

User avatar
joshua.dodd
Posts: 165
Joined: 23 Oct 2016 01:11

Re: What is a suburb today?

Postby joshua.dodd » 10 Jan 2017 14:03

I have a theory that the suburbs will be the future slums. Dallas' northern suburbs would be an exception due to the fact that so many corporate headquarter relocations are moving out there. Nonetheless, the suburbs will be the future slums because the city is where the money and young professionals are going to.

User avatar
tanzoak
Posts: 134
Joined: 18 Dec 2016 19:15

Re: What is a suburb today?

Postby tanzoak » 10 Jan 2017 15:03

joshua.dodd wrote:I have a theory that the suburbs will be the future slums. Dallas' northern suburbs would be an exception due to the fact that so many corporate headquarter relocations are moving out there. Nonetheless, the suburbs will be the future slums because the city is where the money and young professionals are going to.


"The Suburbanization of Poverty" is the official academic name for this phenomenon. Basically, core areas are doing well as they get rehabbed and people discover the good things about close-in city living, and exurbs are still doing well because everything can be shiny and new. In the inner-ring suburbs, though, the houses are getting old (and not in the good way), and the deferred maintanence bills are coming due. And without the city amenities to draw people or tax base to pay for repairs, they're going into a downward spiral.

While it's more strongly focused in high-cost coastal metros (where the poor are being priced out) and decaying rust-belt metros (where reductions in economic vitality are starker), it's still occuring in places like Dallas. Check out the difference in percentage of families below the poverty line between 2000 and 2011-2015:
Image

Inside city limits, it didn't change too much (if anything, that North Dallas low-poverty bubble got a little bigger). The major difference is in those inner-ring suburbs: Garland, Richardson, Farmer's Branch, Irving. Even Plano and Carrolton weren't immune.

User avatar
The_Overdog
Posts: 129
Joined: 21 Oct 2016 14:55

Re: What is a suburb today?

Postby The_Overdog » 10 Jan 2017 16:04

"The Suburbanization of Poverty" is the official academic name for this phenomenon. Basically, core areas are doing well as they get rehabbed and people discover the good things about close-in city living, and exurbs are still doing well because everything can be shiny and new. In the inner-ring suburbs, though, the houses are getting old (and not in the good way), and the deferred maintenance bills are coming due.


My opinion is that this is too 'point in time' and that those cheap places in suburbs will be the next generation's incubators. Houses getting old is something that happens everywhere - it's 'direness' is overstated in suburbs, and 'quality' of housing will not save a place (look at the palaces in Detroit that were abandoned) but only jobs and access. I don't think exurbs will ever be true slums subservient to the main cities - the costs of transportation are just too high - they will be abandoned like the old rest stop towns on I40 or they will become cities of their own right.

Tnexster
Posts: 672
Joined: 22 Oct 2016 16:33
Location: Dallas

Re: What is a suburb today?

Postby Tnexster » 10 Jan 2017 16:30

I can't draw a conclusion from two pictures, it would be better to see that map put in motion over at least 10-15 years and view the impact of the recession, immigration and so on. I know poverty in DFW is spreading out into areas that previously had not seen it as more lower-income residents move into single family houses and apartments as housing becomes less affordable. But the region as a whole has expanded so much in this time frame with too many moving parts to draw an adequate conclusion from just those two illustrations.

User avatar
joshua.dodd
Posts: 165
Joined: 23 Oct 2016 01:11

Re: What is a suburb today?

Postby joshua.dodd » 10 Jan 2017 18:03

There is something extremely alarming about those two pictures. It really shows the gross surge in poverty over the past 15 years and puts into perspective the collapse in the American Middle Class.

Another reason why I see the suburbs as the future slums is because of the cheaply built housing developments. Most of these houses built by such companies as KB Homes are of poor quality, at best, and over inflated prices. Over time as the homes' poor qualities begin to show with foundation troubles and other issues, the prices for these homes are going to plunge. This is why I would never buy a new suburban home in one of these quickly built subdivisions. Over time you will lose money and the value of the homes are going to depreciate until they become slums.

User avatar
The_Overdog
Posts: 129
Joined: 21 Oct 2016 14:55

Re: What is a suburb today?

Postby The_Overdog » 11 Jan 2017 10:12

I know poverty in DFW is spreading out into areas that previously had not seen it as more lower-income residents move into single family houses and apartments as housing becomes less affordable.


I think you have this backwards- poverty spread to mostly single family areas where it didn't exist before because the houses were cheap. Houses getting more expensive will concentrate poverty. So the sprawl of DFW has also sprawled poverty, whether you consider that good or bad. DFW built such small amounts of multi-family the past 30 years (less than 10% of total area housing per year most years - the past few where it's close to 50% are serious anomalies historically) I don't think you can pin this on high rents or apartments.

Yeah about the collapse of the middle class.

Tnexster
Posts: 672
Joined: 22 Oct 2016 16:33
Location: Dallas

Re: What is a suburb today?

Postby Tnexster » 11 Jan 2017 11:08

joshua.dodd wrote:There is something extremely alarming about those two pictures. It really shows the gross surge in poverty over the past 15 years and puts into perspective the collapse in the American Middle Class.

Another reason why I see the suburbs as the future slums is because of the cheaply built housing developments. Most of these houses built by such companies as KB Homes are of poor quality, at best, and over inflated prices. Over time as the homes' poor qualities begin to show with foundation troubles and other issues, the prices for these homes are going to plunge. This is why I would never buy a new suburban home in one of these quickly built subdivisions. Over time you will lose money and the value of the homes are going to depreciate until they become slums.


Suburbs have nothing on Dallas. The city is over the top on poverty with almost 300,000 people living below the line, more than the entire population of Plano and is the absolute worst among big cities with Children. We can point all day to the suburbs and talk about how horrible they are going to be but if you want to see that today just look at the city of Dallas, it is already here.

http://www.dallasnews.com/opinion/comme ... allas-poor

User avatar
tamtagon
Site Admin
Posts: 479
Joined: 16 Oct 2016 12:04

Re: What is a suburb today?

Postby tamtagon » 11 Jan 2017 12:25

I wonder if in 20 years, we'll learn the Downtown/Uptown TIF programs have been more than tertiary contributors to the huge swaths of Dallas left untended in poverty.

User avatar
art_suckz
Posts: 59
Joined: 19 Oct 2016 10:02
Location: Design District
Contact:

Re: What is a suburb today?

Postby art_suckz » 12 Jan 2017 10:41

I'd like to see this done with DFW.

They call it "The suburban Ponzi scheme."

http://www.strongtowns.org/journal/2017 ... s-no-money

THE REAL REASON YOUR CITY HAS NO MONEY


Joe, Josh and I interviewed all the city's department heads and key staff. We gathered as much data as we could (they had a lot). We analyzed and then mapped out all of the city's revenue streams by parcel. We then did the same for all of the city's expenses. This was the most comprehensive geographic analysis of a city's finances that I've ever seen completed. When we finished, we had a three dimensional map showing what parts of the city generated more revenue than expense (in business terms, this would be called profit) and what parts of the city generated more expense than revenue (again, in business terms, this is considered a loss).

Here's that map. In accounting terms, green equals profit and red equals loss. The higher the block goes, the larger the amount of profit/loss. If you have a sense of the basic layout of North American cities post World War II, you can figure out pretty easily what is going on here.


tumblr_inline_ojn60vJrGb1r97ndl_540.png


There are two questions I'm commonly asked when I tell this story. The first is: how did this happen? The second: what do we do now?

The way this happened is pretty simple. At Strong Towns, we call it the Growth Ponzi Scheme. Through a combination of federal incentives, state programs and private capital, cities were able to rapidly grow by expanding horizontally. This provided the local government with the immediate revenues that come from new growth -- permit fees, utility fees, property tax increases, sales tax -- and, in exchange, the city takes on the long term responsibility of servicing and maintaining all the new infrastructure. The money comes in handy in the present while the future obligation is, well....a long time in the future.
You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.
Image
To the man who only has a hammer, everything he encounters begins to look like a nail.

User avatar
joshua.dodd
Posts: 165
Joined: 23 Oct 2016 01:11

Re: What is a suburb today?

Postby joshua.dodd » 13 Jan 2017 15:41

Wow, that is really bad

Tnexster
Posts: 672
Joined: 22 Oct 2016 16:33
Location: Dallas

Re: What is a suburb today?

Postby Tnexster » 30 Mar 2017 16:32

'Frisco will have its own ring of suburbs': What does this mean for future home prices?

http://www.bizjournals.com/dallas/news/ ... -does.html

“In about 10-20 years, Frisco will be the ‘Dallas’ and Celina, Prosper and some other fourth-ring suburbs, as I call them, will be the suburbs to Frisco,” Wooten said. “Frisco will have its own ring of suburbs with people commuting to Frisco.”

Tnexster
Posts: 672
Joined: 22 Oct 2016 16:33
Location: Dallas

Re: What is a suburb today?

Postby Tnexster » 19 Apr 2017 16:41

D-FW leads country in suburban office leasing

https://www.dallasnews.com/business/rea ... ce-leasing

User avatar
Tivo_Kenevil
Posts: 341
Joined: 20 Oct 2016 12:24

Re: What is a suburb today?

Postby Tivo_Kenevil » 19 Apr 2017 18:07

Tnexster wrote:'Frisco will have its own ring of suburbs': What does this mean for future home prices?

http://www.bizjournals.com/dallas/news/ ... -does.html

“In about 10-20 years, Frisco will be the ‘Dallas’ and Celina, Prosper and some other fourth-ring suburbs, as I call them, will be the suburbs to Frisco,” Wooten said. “Frisco will have its own ring of suburbs with people commuting to Frisco.”


I just read this post... Uh huh, I'm still waiting for Palo Alto to be the next SF.

User avatar
ContriveDallasite
Posts: 83
Joined: 27 Oct 2016 03:34
Location: München

Re: What is a suburb today?

Postby ContriveDallasite » 20 Apr 2017 08:38

Tivo_Kenevil wrote:
Tnexster wrote:'Frisco will have its own ring of suburbs': What does this mean for future home prices?

http://www.bizjournals.com/dallas/news/ ... -does.html

“In about 10-20 years, Frisco will be the ‘Dallas’ and Celina, Prosper and some other fourth-ring suburbs, as I call them, will be the suburbs to Frisco,” Wooten said. “Frisco will have its own ring of suburbs with people commuting to Frisco.”


I just read this post... Uh huh, I'm still waiting for Palo Alto to be the next SF.


I know plenty of people who live in SF and commute every day to Palo Alto. This will envitably happen as the cheaper homes are pushed even further out in to the prarie. As long as Frisco and the entire Legacy mile remain such an incredible hot job relocation center this is inevitably the future.

User avatar
Tivo_Kenevil
Posts: 341
Joined: 20 Oct 2016 12:24

Re: What is a suburb today?

Postby Tivo_Kenevil » 20 Apr 2017 10:20

ContriveDallasite wrote:
Tivo_Kenevil wrote:
Tnexster wrote:'Frisco will have its own ring of suburbs': What does this mean for future home prices?

http://www.bizjournals.com/dallas/news/ ... -does.html



I just read this post... Uh huh, I'm still waiting for Palo Alto to be the next SF.


I know plenty of people who live in SF and commute every day to Palo Alto. This will envitably happen as the cheaper homes are pushed even further out in to the prarie. As long as Frisco and the entire Legacy mile remain such an incredible hot job relocation center this is inevitably the future.


I agree somewhat.

The thing is the homes in Frisco and West Plano aren't cheaper in comparison to most DFW cities. So I don't think these cities will absorb all the new residents that come to DFW. In addition most of the new construction in these cities, particularly Frisco and McKinney are for the most part SF unit homes.

Not to mention the Plano Residents are fighting densifying right now.

That'll push people away further into the boonies.. Lucas, Anna , Melissa etc.

Frisco/Plano are in a way reminiscent to Palo Alto ,Menlo Park but with much less affluent residents and with much less job creation. These DFW cities attract relocations.

And I think that's the biggest difference. It's hard to predict future "job creation" if you're for the most part creating jobs by relocating companies. This reminds of Las Colinas and other Hot Job Centers that have their moment and then calm down.

It'll be interesting if it will be sustainable. If so DFW will become even more decentralized. Dallas has to step up it's game. In a way that's good for the city as it can't become complacent. If Midtown is a successful then Dallas will be able to offset some of the sprawl.

User avatar
The_Overdog
Posts: 129
Joined: 21 Oct 2016 14:55

Re: What is a suburb today?

Postby The_Overdog » 20 Apr 2017 12:28

It's hard to predict future "job creation" if you're for the most part creating jobs by relocating companies


And Collin County's future job creation prospects are terrible - the closest major university (UT Dallas in Richardson) is decent and expanding but that'll be producing jobs 20 years from now. The education within the county - SMU @ Legacy is token and unremarkable, and Collin County Community College is putting together a bond to build subpar satellite campuses in upcoming suburbs rather than expanding programs in any central location - so it's be available -but mediocre. So exceptional job creation is going to have to continue to be parasitic rather than organic.

That means young minds have to leave the county to be educated, and if they come back or not it's a tossup.

Plano is already having to add language to their contracts to keep companies in the city from abandoning locations in the east to move west to the 'hot' area. How sustainable can that be?

If the anti-density crowd wins the upcoming elections in McKinney, Allen, and Plano (likely) and the new folks follow through with their ideas, then Collin County's growth might hit a wall. Frisco's guiding mayor through their impressive growth has already moved on.

User avatar
tanzoak
Posts: 134
Joined: 18 Dec 2016 19:15

Re: What is a suburb today?

Postby tanzoak » 20 Apr 2017 13:19

Yeah, Palo Alto is Palo Alto because of Stanford and a giant bay that makes it difficult to relocate to new hot areas while maintaining similar commutes for most workers. Why would Frisco have much staying power once its buildings start to get old?

Tnexster
Posts: 672
Joined: 22 Oct 2016 16:33
Location: Dallas

Re: What is a suburb today?

Postby Tnexster » 13 May 2017 14:59

tanzoak wrote:Yeah, Palo Alto is Palo Alto because of Stanford and a giant bay that makes it difficult to relocate to new hot areas while maintaining similar commutes for most workers. Why would Frisco have much staying power once its buildings start to get old?


Is there some reason why it wouldn't? People have been writing the epitaph for Plano and Frisco for almost as long as I have lived here. First it was so far it would never be, except then it was, then it was so far it would never grow, then it did, and again and again it grows and prospers and pushes further out and people still say it won't last. There is no evidence, no fact that supports anything except more of what has already come to be.

User avatar
tanzoak
Posts: 134
Joined: 18 Dec 2016 19:15

Re: What is a suburb today?

Postby tanzoak » 14 May 2017 03:21

Tnexster wrote:
tanzoak wrote:Yeah, Palo Alto is Palo Alto because of Stanford and a giant bay that makes it difficult to relocate to new hot areas while maintaining similar commutes for most workers. Why would Frisco have much staying power once its buildings start to get old?


Is there some reason why it wouldn't? People have been writing the epitaph for Plano and Frisco for almost as long as I have lived here. First it was so far it would never be, except then it was, then it was so far it would never grow, then it did, and again and again it grows and prospers and pushes further out and people still say it won't last. There is no evidence, no fact that supports anything except more of what has already come to be.


The reason why it wouldn't is because the only real advantage Frisco conveys is newness. There's no university creating new businesses and drawing in existing ones. It's not the center of the transportation network. It offers no cultural or other amenity premium. Yes, it's near many affluent communities, but it's not like other nearby suburbs don't offer the same thing.

In 20-30 years, once all the available non-single family land is fully built out, what does Frisco offer? A bunch of declining 20 year old buildings too valuable to redevelop but no longer providing the same growth (and tax revenue) they once did.

Palo Alto doesn't decay because of Stanford. Midtown Manhattan doesn't decay because you've *got* to be in the middle of it all. Central Dallas, while certainly not either of those places, at least offers something unique to the region and has the ability to intensify a crapload of nearby land, so has more of an ability to continue to boom long-term.

I've literally never heard an "epitaph" for Plano or Frisco, so I don't know what you're talking about there. And this is a decades-long process. But all neighborhoods (and towns) are either growing or declining, and there's a pretty easily written decline story written for Frisco in a couple of decades.

Tnexster
Posts: 672
Joined: 22 Oct 2016 16:33
Location: Dallas

Re: What is a suburb today?

Postby Tnexster » 14 May 2017 11:11

^They said the same thing about Dallas decades ago. I remember a particular article in the Chicago Tribune a long time ago detailing all the flaws in Dallas and how it was just a "dumb city" that would never go anywhere for many of the same reasons described above. And in terms of decay many would argue that SF and NYC are already in decline and the chasm between the rich and poor is so wide that unless you make a six figure salary you can forget living there unless you like living in a house full of people. I hear people talk about how Plano and Frisco are so unsustainable. Nearly 400 people a day move into this region, most of them move into "The Wedge" which defines this area. As long as that continues to be the case what we see will be sustained, when that dries up people can start to worry. Just because Stanford isn't located in Frisco or Plano does not matter. UTD is here and is growing, SMU is in Plano, UNT opened a campus in Frisco, all of them feeding the tech companies that continue to thrive. Instead of bashing this part of DFW it would be awesome if people would recognize the value Plano and Frisco are bringing to the entire region, their contribution to the overall economy because without them life here would be much different.

User avatar
Tivo_Kenevil
Posts: 341
Joined: 20 Oct 2016 12:24

Re: What is a suburb today?

Postby Tivo_Kenevil » 14 May 2017 12:39

"Nearly 400 people a day move into this region, most of them move into "The Wedge" which defines this area."

I'd like to see data that backs this claim up. Last I heard it was fairly distributed
You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.

Tnexster
Posts: 672
Joined: 22 Oct 2016 16:33
Location: Dallas

Re: What is a suburb today?

Postby Tnexster » 16 May 2017 21:25

The wedge includes much of Dallas County, most of Collin, Denton and even part of Tarrant so would appear to be consistent with that claim. That would not suggest that people don't move to other parts of the metroplex because we all know they do but most people will try to move as close to their jobs as they can. Where are most of the jobs? Where is most of the office space in north Texas? It's all in the wedge. Property values would also back this up since most of the insane pace of home building and home bidding exists inside the wedge.


Return to “Suburban + Exurban Issues/News”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 1 guest

Login