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New Census Population Estimates

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The_Overdog
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Re: New Census Population Estimates

Postby The_Overdog » 19 Apr 2019 11:17

I don't really find the 'county size' argument to be all that persuasive, as let's take the Houston numbers again, even with the combined county size:

From Cord:
Dallas + Tarrant: 532,866 (1,811 sq mi)
DFW otherwise: 216 + 192 + 145: 553k ~ close enough to 49/51.

Houston:
590
Houston otherwise: 197 + 131 + 129: 457 ~ 60%/40%

LA is even more dramatic I do believe, and LA county is more E-W than N-S (along the more valuable coastline).

Under all these metrics, DFW is growing but also sprawling more than Houston or LA.

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Mgreen15
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Re: New Census Population Estimates

Postby Mgreen15 » 23 May 2019 16:54

The US Census Bureau released it’s population estimates for cities today and the data obtained between July 1, 2017 and July 1, 2018 doesn’t look so good for Dallas.

Fort Worth gained 19,522 (895,008) and is 3rd in terms of largest numeric increase. Dallas gained just 1,960 (1,345,047) over the same time period.

According to these estimates, Dallas has steadily gained close to 20,000 people on a yearly basis since 2010, so I wonder if the new estimate is more of a correction to over estimated gains in years past.
Last edited by Mgreen15 on 23 May 2019 17:21, edited 2 times in total.

DPatel304
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Re: New Census Population Estimates

Postby DPatel304 » 23 May 2019 17:12

^Wow, thanks for sharing. That number looks extremely low, but I'm curious to see how other cities (aside from Fort Worth) fared during the same time frame.

I figured we were due for a slow-down, but that is quite a drastic drop from the year before.

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Hannibal Lecter
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Re: New Census Population Estimates

Postby Hannibal Lecter » 27 May 2019 02:59

This was a surprise: Fort Worth has passed San Francisco and Columbus to become the 13th most populous American city.

Five of the 13 most populous cities in the country lie along the I-10/I-35/I-45 triangle.

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LuvBigD
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Re: New Census Population Estimates

Postby LuvBigD » 04 Jun 2019 13:51

Mgreen15 wrote:The US Census Bureau released it’s population estimates for cities today and the data obtained between July 1, 2017 and July 1, 2018 doesn’t look so good for Dallas.

Fort Worth gained 19,522 (895,008) and is 3rd in terms of largest numeric increase. Dallas gained just 1,960 (1,345,047) over the same time period.

According to these estimates, Dallas has steadily gained close to 20,000 people on a yearly basis since 2010, so I wonder if the new estimate is more of a correction to over estimated gains in years past.


That Dallas number looks like it's missing a digit.

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Mgreen15
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Re: New Census Population Estimates

Postby Mgreen15 » 04 Jun 2019 22:29

LuvBigD wrote:
Mgreen15 wrote:The US Census Bureau released it’s population estimates for cities today and the data obtained between July 1, 2017 and July 1, 2018 doesn’t look so good for Dallas.

Fort Worth gained 19,522 (895,008) and is 3rd in terms of largest numeric increase. Dallas gained just 1,960 (1,345,047) over the same time period.

According to these estimates, Dallas has steadily gained close to 20,000 people on a yearly basis since 2010, so I wonder if the new estimate is more of a correction to over estimated gains in years past.


That Dallas number looks like it's missing a digit.


Considering Dallas’ growth trend from 2010-2017... it really does seem like this is missing a digit. But this is correct, according to the census bureau. I would like to understand their process of gathering information for these yearly estimates and if the data is truly accurate.

You can see the year by year population estimates here:

https://factfinder.census.gov/faces/tab ... l?src=bkmk

I45Tex
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Re: New Census Population Estimates

Postby I45Tex » 30 Dec 2019 16:42

It will be a few months before annual metro population estimates for 7/1/2019 come out, but the state and national ones were released today.

https://www.census.gov/newsroom/press-r ... ation.html

Texas gained an estimated 367,000 in the twelve month period, for a total of 3,850,000 since the last census. The gain will be 4,125,000 in ten years if the latest annual rate continues up to April 1, 2020.
And the only states which have gained more than 20% as many new residents so far are Florida (2,673,000), North Carolina (952K), Georgia (929K), Washington (890K), and Arizona (886K, or 23% as many as Texas).

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Tucy
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Re: New Census Population Estimates

Postby Tucy » 31 Dec 2019 13:19

I45Tex wrote:It will be a few months before annual metro population estimates for 7/1/2019 come out, but the state and national ones were released today.

https://www.census.gov/newsroom/press-r ... ation.html

Texas gained an estimated 367,000 in the twelve month period, for a total of 3,850,000 since the last census. The gain will be 4,125,000 in ten years if the latest annual rate continues up to April 1, 2020.
And the only states which have gained more than 20% as many new residents so far are Florida (2,673,000), North Carolina (952K), Georgia (929K), Washington (890K), and Arizona (886K, or 23% as many as Texas).


Texas will likely gain another two congressional seats.

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dch526
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Re: New Census Population Estimates

Postby dch526 » 02 Jan 2020 11:12

Tucy wrote:
I45Tex wrote:It will be a few months before annual metro population estimates for 7/1/2019 come out, but the state and national ones were released today.

https://www.census.gov/newsroom/press-r ... ation.html

Texas gained an estimated 367,000 in the twelve month period, for a total of 3,850,000 since the last census. The gain will be 4,125,000 in ten years if the latest annual rate continues up to April 1, 2020.
And the only states which have gained more than 20% as many new residents so far are Florida (2,673,000), North Carolina (952K), Georgia (929K), Washington (890K), and Arizona (886K, or 23% as many as Texas).


Texas will likely gain another two congressional seats.


2 at a minimum with a good shot at 3.

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Cord1936
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Re: New Census Population Estimates

Postby Cord1936 » 12 Jan 2020 18:56

Image
Dallas-Fort Worth could see biggest population surge in U.S. through 2029, study says
By John Egan, CultureMap Dallas, Jan 9, 2020, 3:32 pm

Brace yourselves, North Texans. Following a decade of eye-popping population growth, Dallas-Fort Worth is expected in this decade to once again lead the nation’s metro areas for the number of new residents.

New data from commercial real estate services company Cushman & Wakefield shows DFW gained 1,349,378 residents from 2010 through 2019. In terms of the number of new residents tallied during the past decade, DFW ranked first among U.S. metro areas, the data indicates.

From 2020 through 2029, DFW is projected to tack on another 1,393,623 residents, Cushman & Wakefield says.

For the second decade in a row, that would be the highest number of new residents for any metro area, the company says. By comparison, the Oklahoma City metro area was home to nearly 1.4 million people in 2018.
...
As of July 2018, the Census Bureau estimated 7,539,711 people lived in DFW. Under the Cushman & Wakefield scenario, DFW’s population would swell to about 9 million by the time the calendar flips to 2030.
...
Today, DFW is the fourth largest metro area in the U.S., behind New York City, Los Angeles, and Chicago. The population of Chicago, the third largest metro area, barely budged from 2010 to 2018, according to the Census Bureau. Today, about 9.46 million people live in the Windy City and its suburbs.

If the Chicago area’s population growth remains relatively flat, DFW’s headcount conceivably could surpass Chicago’s in the not-too-distant future.
...
A key barometer for DFW’s growth prospects is the size of its tech workforce.

A July 2019 report from commercial real estate services company CBRE found that only the San Francisco Bay Area, New York City, and Washington, D.C., beat DFW for the depth of the pool of tech workers in U.S. metro areas.

The trend of corporate relocations to the Dallas-Fort Worth area isn’t slowing down,” Clay Vaughn, senior vice president of CBRE’s tech and media practice in Dallas, said in a release. “The favorable business climate and available tech talent in Dallas has made it one of the top startup markets in the U.S., which further incentivizes companies to move to the area.”
...
Full article: http://dallas.culturemap.com/news/city-life/01-09-20-dfw-lead-population-growth-2020-2029-cushman-wakefield/?utm_source=Dallas+Magazine&utm_campaign=a567130ff8-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2019_10_09_09_23_COPY_02&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_d83922037a-a567130ff8-106717359

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Tucy
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Re: New Census Population Estimates

Postby Tucy » 12 Jan 2020 19:41

Cord1936 wrote:Image
Dallas-Fort Worth could see biggest population surge in U.S. through 2029, study says
By John Egan, CultureMap Dallas, Jan 9, 2020, 3:32 pm

[b]For the second decade in a row, that would be the highest number of new residents for any metro area, the company says[/b]. By comparison, the Oklahoma City metro area was home to nearly 1.4 million people in 2018.

Full article: http://dallas.culturemap.com/news/city-life/01-09-20-dfw-lead-population-growth-2020-2029-cushman-wakefield/?utm_source=Dallas+Magazine&utm_campaign=a567130ff8-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2019_10_09_09_23_COPY_02&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_d83922037a-a567130ff8-106717359



I'm not sure that's true. Did DFW really add more people than any other metro from 2000 to 2010? (I think Houston may have outpaced us.)

From the Census Bureau:

DFW: 6,371,773 (2010) 5,161,544 (2000) 1,210,228 added

Houston: 5,946,800 (2010) 4,715,407 (2000) 1,231,393 added.

VERY close, but DFW did NOT add the most people in the previous decade.

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Cord1936
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Re: New Census Population Estimates

Postby Cord1936 » 12 Jan 2020 22:14

Tucy wrote:
Cord1936 wrote:Image
Dallas-Fort Worth could see biggest population surge in U.S. through 2029, study says
By John Egan, CultureMap Dallas, Jan 9, 2020, 3:32 pm

[b]For the second decade in a row, that would be the highest number of new residents for any metro area, the company says[/b]. By comparison, the Oklahoma City metro area was home to nearly 1.4 million people in 2018.

Full article: http://dallas.culturemap.com/news/city-life/01-09-20-dfw-lead-population-growth-2020-2029-cushman-wakefield/?utm_source=Dallas+Magazine&utm_campaign=a567130ff8-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2019_10_09_09_23_COPY_02&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_d83922037a-a567130ff8-106717359



I'm not sure that's true. Did DFW really add more people than any other metro from 2000 to 2010? (I think Houston may have outpaced us.)

From the Census Bureau:

DFW: 6,371,773 (2010) 5,161,544 (2000) 1,210,228 added

Houston: 5,946,800 (2010) 4,715,407 (2000) 1,231,393 added.

VERY close, but DFW did NOT add the most people in the previous decade.

^^^^^^^

CBRE is using a different measurement period than what you referenced.

They are counting the decade from 2000-2009, 2010-2019, and 2020-2029.

CBRE performed the analysis used in the article but that seems to be how they are measuring the "decade" they reference. It actually is ten years when you count their first year (2000, 2010, 2020) as year one and the tenth year is 2009, 2019, and 2029.

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jetnd87
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Re: New Census Population Estimates

Postby jetnd87 » 14 Jan 2020 16:21

Assuming this pace of population increase continues, it will be interesting to see how the people and developments are allocated to urban areas, Dallas proper, and suburbs. Even if the increase continues as it has - most going to suburbs - it should still instigate a ton of new urban development. I'm hoping that the split will be a bit closer to 50/50, which I think puts Dallas squarely on a path to true "urban-hood".

DPatel304
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Re: New Census Population Estimates

Postby DPatel304 » 14 Jan 2020 16:40

jetnd87 wrote:Assuming this pace of population increase continues, it will be interesting to see how the people and developments are allocated to urban areas, Dallas proper, and suburbs. Even if the increase continues as it has - most going to suburbs - it should still instigate a ton of new urban development. I'm hoping that the split will be a bit closer to 50/50, which I think puts Dallas squarely on a path to true "urban-hood".


This sounds about right, and I think we are definitely trending in this direction.

What could be interesting is seeing suburbs to the south and east of Downtown start to flourish. Yes it would still be suburban growth, but it would help pull the 'focal point' of DFW back towards Downtown which would make the CBD even more attractive for companies to locate.

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Tucy
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Re: New Census Population Estimates

Postby Tucy » 14 Jan 2020 17:56

jetnd87 wrote:Assuming this pace of population increase continues, it will be interesting to see how the people and developments are allocated to urban areas, Dallas proper, and suburbs. Even if the increase continues as it has - most going to suburbs - it should still instigate a ton of new urban development. I'm hoping that the split will be a bit closer to 50/50, which I think puts Dallas squarely on a path to true "urban-hood".


What do you suppose the split has been in the past decade?

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jetnd87
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Re: New Census Population Estimates

Postby jetnd87 » 14 Jan 2020 19:38

So per this article, DFW added ~1.35M residents. I've seen some sources say that Dallas city proper added ~150K residents from 2010-2019. So the mix was around 10:90 Dallas:Suburbs (incl. FW). Now within that 10%, I have no idea how much was in "urban" vs. non-urban neighborhoods. Even if we just shift slightly towards parity - say 15-20% in Dallas proper - that should drive a ton of urban development. I'm hopeful that with a lot of the changes since 2010 and the limits of growing McMansions up north, it's higher than that. But who knows.

Regardless, if these population projections are remotely true, there should be a solid business case for many, many new projects in and around the urban core, which will drive us to the density inflection point.

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muncien
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Re: New Census Population Estimates

Postby muncien » 15 Jan 2020 08:46

One thing that is obvious (but still worth noting), is that the boom in the burbs is not taking share from urban areas. Instead, it is cannibalizing other burbs (inner-burbs) for the most part. It will be interesting to see how these areas adapt to these changing circumstances. There are some neighborhoods that we saw being constructed brand new when we were young, that are no downright dilapidated. Many have found a way survive just fine, but others seem to struggle.
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The_Overdog
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Re: New Census Population Estimates

Postby The_Overdog » 15 Jan 2020 09:33

Which inner ring suburbs lost population? I'm not finding the list? Garland and Mesquite, maybe?

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muncien
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Re: New Census Population Estimates

Postby muncien » 15 Jan 2020 09:50

The_Overdog wrote:Which inner ring suburbs lost population? I'm not finding the list? Garland and Mesquite, maybe?


I'm not saying any burb in its entirety lost population as most burbs have fringes with plenty of land to develop. But there are significant 'hoods' in places like Garland, Carrolton, Lewisville, Grand Prairie, and Irving, that have gone down hill in favor of flashier, newer housing.
Some of that has slowed down with the recent surge in the economy as 'flippers' have found a way to make a little $ on them, but they won't fair well at all during another recession. The rather poor quality of home construction during early booms means a decent amount of $ must be put into them to keep them relevant. That doesn't even speak to the failing infrastructure in these neighborhoods who's value doesn't offset the expense of long term maintenance. Anybody walking on a sidewalk in those neighborhoods, experiencing a water main break, or navigating around pot holes knows what I'm talking about.
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Tivo_Kenevil
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Re: New Census Population Estimates

Postby Tivo_Kenevil » 15 Jan 2020 10:32

Can confirm Garland and Mesquite and Parts South of the Irving Convention Center in Irving are in rough shape. Arlington is ugly everywhere. I think Plano and Richardson have done a better job in staying relevant and more liveable when compared to other inner ring Suburbs. Im not familiar with Carrollton. It's the cyclical nature of Suburbs.

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The_Overdog
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Re: New Census Population Estimates

Postby The_Overdog » 15 Jan 2020 10:46

I think Plano and Richardson have done a better job in staying relevant and more liveable when compared to other inner ring Suburbs. Im not familiar with Carrollton. It's the cyclical nature of Suburbs.


OK, I get what you are saying. It's kind of interesting that due to decreases in family size, lots of those older neighborhoods were built at close to 5k people per sq mile, and if you compare on a zip basis now, many have fallen to 1500-2000. That has profound effects on retail in the area, and high retail vacancy makes an area look even more rundown. It's a perplexing cycle.

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muncien
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Re: New Census Population Estimates

Postby muncien » 15 Jan 2020 11:31

OMG... i can't believe I left out Arlington. Probably one of the best examples (worst). Funny though, as they aren't really an 'inner' ring suburb. I'm not sure what it is about Arlington, but so much of it is hurtin.
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DPatel304
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Re: New Census Population Estimates

Postby DPatel304 » 15 Jan 2020 11:54

I rarely go out to Arlington, but it just seems like it should be doing so much better than it actually is. It seems like it's decently well situated in the metroplex and looks to have pretty good access to the jobs in Downtown Fort Worth, Downtown Dallas, and Las Colinas, and they also have a mid-sized university there. Instead of focusing on those strengths, they seem to put all their efforts into being an entertainment district.

This is speaking as someone who doesn't really know much about Arlington and doesn't visit much, so I could be wrong here.

Tnexster
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Re: New Census Population Estimates

Postby Tnexster » 15 Jan 2020 12:46

Unless you go to a game I don't know why anybody would visit Arlington.

Interestingly, the Parks Mall is a fascinating place if you want to see what shopping was like two decades ago. That mall is a busy place, one of the busiest malls I have ever seen and is a very accurate representation of what malls used to be like in the 90's and before. So, that could be a reason to go, just to see that.


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