Dallas Fort Worth Urban Forum

DFW Economy

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Tucy
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Re: DFW Economy

Postby Tucy » 17 Mar 2019 11:36

tamtagon wrote:wouldn't it be something if North Texas hit the 8,000,000 mark in 2020?!?!


That would require a big jump in our already extraordinary rate of growth. I think we can safely say we won't hit the 8 million mark in 2020. Perhaps in the 2021 estimates; certainly by 2022.

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Cord1936
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Re: DFW Economy

Postby Cord1936 » 20 Mar 2019 10:40

While this article, from Bisnow Los Angeles, highlights LA as being the #1 market in all of the Americas for real estate investment it mentions the remainder of the top five.

DFW is the # 2 market:

"The Dallas-Fort Worth area, Washington, D.C., San Francisco/Northern California and Seattle round out the top five."
.......
Read more at: https://www.bisnow.com/los-angeles/news ... um=Browser

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Cord1936
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Re: DFW Economy

Postby Cord1936 » 21 Mar 2019 22:44

Image

Here’s Where Americans Moved to in 2018
Updater.com, December 17, 2018

Updater’s moving destinations report is based on aggregated moving trends determined by analyzing 2,000,000 anonymous household moves that took place between Jan. 1 and Aug. 31, 2018. Check out this visual representation of the top 15 most moved to cities in 2018.

Destinations on the 2017 most moved to cities list that remained on the 2018 list include Los Angeles, New York City, Atlanta, Austin, Houston, San Francisco, Chicago, Seattle, Denver, and Phoenix.

Washington D.C. and Dallas stayed strong from last year to this year as the top two most moved to cities.
...
Article: https://www.updater.com/trends/where-am ... ed-in-2018

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Cord1936
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Re: DFW Economy

Postby Cord1936 » 24 Mar 2019 13:47

Surprising to see Houston on this list as # 9 out of the top 20 metros in the nation that people who currently live there are wanting to flee. It's in contrast to Houston appearing as # 7 on 2018's top 15 moving destinations.

But this report is of a differing viewpoint - of the people who already live there, not those who see Houston from afar and think it is desirable to move to. Interesting.
------------------------------------------------------
People Living in These US Cities Are Most Eager to Get Out
They're the metro areas that Americans are more interested in moving from than moving to.
MoneyWise.com, by Doug Whiteman, March 18, 2019 13:42

In Houston, unemployment and housing and living costs are all above the national average.

Plus, Houston’s infrastructure is so prone to flooding that property in the city has become a terrible investment. Though Hurricane Harvey was big news, the city deals with flooding almost every time there’s a rainstorm.

So these days, many Houstonians are searching for homes in Austin, Texas — and in Los Angeles, a city that's not exactly known for affordability or safety from natural disasters.

Full article: https://moneywise.com/a/ch-b/people-in-these-us-cities-most-want-to-get-out/p-11

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tamtagon
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Re: DFW Economy

Postby tamtagon » 24 Mar 2019 14:36

Depending on how many petro-chemical fires are going, Houston has the poorest air quality in the country at times.

Ridiculous, negligent and criminal.

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Matt777
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Re: DFW Economy

Postby Matt777 » 25 Mar 2019 11:03

Cord1936 wrote:Surprising to see Houston on this list as # 9 out of the top 20 metros in the nation that people who currently live there are wanting to flee. It's in contrast to Houston appearing as # 7 on 2018's top 15 moving destinations.

But this report is of a differing viewpoint - of the people who already live there, not those who see Houston from afar and think it is desirable to move to. Interesting.
------------------------------------------------------
People Living in These US Cities Are Most Eager to Get Out
They're the metro areas that Americans are more interested in moving from than moving to.
MoneyWise.com, by Doug Whiteman, March 18, 2019 13:42

In Houston, unemployment and housing and living costs are all above the national average.

Plus, Houston’s infrastructure is so prone to flooding that property in the city has become a terrible investment. Though Hurricane Harvey was big news, the city deals with flooding almost every time there’s a rainstorm.

So these days, many Houstonians are searching for homes in Austin, Texas — and in Los Angeles, a city that's not exactly known for affordability or safety from natural disasters.

Full article: https://moneywise.com/a/ch-b/people-in-these-us-cities-most-want-to-get-out/p-11


I wouldn't doubt there's a lot of people in Houston who want to get out, but this article has some weird "facts." Dallas is listed in the top ten places people want to move to, but the article says "L.A. is the metro area with the most house shoppers looking to escape to Dallas. Homes in the "Big D" have been selling for an average of just $65,000, Redfin says — a tenth of what you'd pay in Los Angeles."

Either they missed a digit on that $65,000 number, or this article is crap.

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Cord1936
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Re: DFW Economy

Postby Cord1936 » 23 May 2019 17:28

The Dallas area is not slowing down and continues to lead the State with its red hot growth.

Dallas led Texas in the number of new jobs in the first quarter of 2019 with 27,900 new jobs ... with the largest first quarter gain in the TAMU series history of conducting these reports (since 1990)!
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Outlook for the Texas Economy
by Luis Torres, Wesley Miller, and Paige Woodson, Texas A&M University, May 15, 2019

Quote:

Dallas led the state with 27,900 jobs created in the first three months of the year, the city's largest first-quarter gain in series history (beginning in 1990). Most of the growth occurred in professional/business services and trade/transportation/utilities.

A resurgence of manufacturing employment contributed to a net quarterly increase of 23,100 jobs in Houston.

Booming construction in Central Texas led to a total of 5,300 and 8,200 new positions in Austin and San Antonio, respectively.

On the other hand, Fort Worth payrolls added just 1,100 positions in the first quarter after a sluggish start to the year.

Article: https://www.recenter.tamu.edu/articles/technical-report/outlook-for-the-texas-economy

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

And here are a couple graphs from another very recent Texas A&M University article reviewing economic performance in April of 2019:

Image

Image

Article: https://www.recenter.tamu.edu/articles/technical-report/monthly-review-of-the-texas-economy

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Jbarn
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Re: DFW Economy

Postby Jbarn » 25 May 2019 16:08

Cord1936 wrote:The Dallas area is not slowing down and continues to lead the State with its red hot growth.

Dallas led Texas in the number of new jobs in the first quarter of 2019 with 27,900 new jobs ... with the largest first quarter gain in the TAMU series history of conducting these reports (since 1990)!
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Outlook for the Texas Economy

by Luis Torres, Wesley Miller, and Paige Woodson, Texas A&M University, May 15, 2019

Quote:

Dallas led the state with 27,900 jobs created in the first three months of the year, the city's largest first-quarter gain in series history (beginning in 1990). Most of the growth occurred in professional/business services and trade/transportation/utilities.

A resurgence of manufacturing employment contributed to a net quarterly increase of 23,100 jobs in Houston.

Booming construction in Central Texas led to a total of 5,300 and 8,200 new positions in Austin and San Antonio, respectively.

On the other hand, Fort Worth payrolls added just 1,100 positions in the first quarter after a sluggish start to the year.

Article: https://www.recenter.tamu.edu/articles/technical-report/outlook-for-the-texas-economy

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

And here are a couple graphs from another very recent Texas A&M University article reviewing economic performance in April of 2019:

Image

Image

Article: https://www.recenter.tamu.edu/articles/technical-report/monthly-review-of-the-texas-economy


Yet the city of Dallas gained only 1,000 or so residents over the last year, lower than almost all major cities, per the most recent census numbers.

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eburress
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Re: DFW Economy

Postby eburress » 26 May 2019 07:58

^ That's a great point. With all the building, densification, etc, how is it that Dallas only gained ~1,000 residents? I realize Dallas is land-locked in most directions but it seems like it would have to be something more than that. E.g., are there areas in southern or west Dallas which are losing population?

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Hannibal Lecter
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Re: DFW Economy

Postby Hannibal Lecter » 27 May 2019 03:07

eburress wrote:^ That's a great point. With all the building, densification, etc, how is it that Dallas only gained ~1,000 residents? I realize Dallas is land-locked in most directions but it seems like it would have to be something more than that. E.g., are there areas in southern or west Dallas which are losing population?


Something to think about: Parkland Hospital alone delivered over 12,500 babies in 2018. If not for births then Dallas population would be decreasing. More people are moving out than moving in.

The Morons on Marilla continue to drive people away. Welcome to New Detroit.

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eburress
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Re: DFW Economy

Postby eburress » 27 May 2019 10:30

What are the morons doing that's driving people away?

If I had to guess, if/when people are leaving Dallas it's to get their kids into better schools, and I can also see how some people are being priced out of in-town living, but I wonder what other factors there are.

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Maddog
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Re: DFW Economy

Postby Maddog » 27 May 2019 10:49

Another element of a good city economy is its nightlife. And Dallas definitely has a lot to offer in that regard. Great things to do at night keeps residents in the area and it attracts non-residents too, all helping the local economy.

For instance, The Plano Economic Development site has a good list of things to do at night in the Plano/Dallas/Ft. Worth areas, see https://www.planotexas.org/465/Nightlife and doing a quick search I found Dallas among the best blues cities with venues to match here https://www.clickitticket.com/best-blues-clubs-in-best-cities/#Dallas

They list:

    Balcony Club
    Sandaga 813
    Poor David's Pub
    Babb Brothers

If you think of any economically viable cities in the U.S. and you realize they all have a vibrant nightlife that keep the cash registers ringing.

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Mgreen15
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Re: DFW Economy

Postby Mgreen15 » 28 May 2019 10:47

eburress wrote:What are the morons doing that's driving people away?

If I had to guess, if/when people are leaving Dallas it's to get their kids into better schools, and I can also see how some people are being priced out of in-town living, but I wonder what other factors there are.


Unfortunately, the wealth gap is going to plague Dallas’ population growth. If you are a middle class family, either you have to be okay with living In a single family home somewhere south of I-30 or you’ll be renting a two bed room apartment. There are too many newer/cheaper options living outside of the city and unlike other major cities, jobs are not mostly concentrated to Dallas’ urban core.

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Tivo_Kenevil
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Re: DFW Economy

Postby Tivo_Kenevil » 28 May 2019 12:37

Mgreen15 wrote:. There are too many newer/cheaper options living outside of the city and unlike other major cities, jobs are not mostly concentrated to Dallas’ urban core.

True, but where exactly is the newer affordable housing at exactly? Everything new is high end.

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tamtagon
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Re: DFW Economy

Postby tamtagon » 28 May 2019 12:39

There's so much room and opportunity for Middle Income dwelling development south of the Trinity River it's almost shocking. Just like neglect and irresponsible policies created the Trinity River Forest, neglect and irresponsible policies have created South of the river potential for an economic cornucopia that exceeds the scale and impact of North Dallas County suburban development. Imagine another 400,000 city residents and 1,000,000 county residents in South Dallas County at the point of initial build-out when the reconfiguration, rezoning and rebuilding starts and density is the mandate.

The city should be near the end of the first generation of planning and foundation building that will most effectively fill up the Southern Half, so we're way behind schedule... and as we've seen with the Trinity River Park amenities (tollroad?!?! wtf, Horse Park, Golf Course, Standing Wave for bad examples) neglect and bad policy making is still very powerful at City Hall.

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anon
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Re: DFW Economy

Postby anon » 28 May 2019 18:37

Hannibal Lecter wrote:
eburress wrote:^ That's a great point. With all the building, densification, etc, how is it that Dallas only gained ~1,000 residents? I realize Dallas is land-locked in most directions but it seems like it would have to be something more than that. E.g., are there areas in southern or west Dallas which are losing population?


Something to think about: Parkland Hospital alone delivered over 12,500 babies in 2018. If not for births then Dallas population would be decreasing. More people are moving out than moving in.

The Morons on Marilla continue to drive people away. Welcome to New Detroit.


........ you're joking right?

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TNWE
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Re: DFW Economy

Postby TNWE » 29 May 2019 10:44

Tivo_Kenevil wrote:
Mgreen15 wrote:. There are too many newer/cheaper options living outside of the city and unlike other major cities, jobs are not mostly concentrated to Dallas’ urban core.

True, but where exactly is the newer affordable housing at exactly? Everything new is high end.


Over in the Oak Lawn thread, there are Stable Geniuses claiming that only building high end housing will lower rents for everyone, because they took a freshman econ class once and "supply is supply" :roll: :roll: :roll:

Developers (and the Morons on Marilla) have been spoiled by this prolonged economic upswing, and have convinced themselves that there's a neverending stream of high-income professional jobs coming to Dallas, and are building at a price point commensurate with that income level. Once the economic cycle enters a downturn and layoffs hit, those developers won't have the rents (or renters) to cover their debt payments or property tax assessments. But at least our skyline will look so pretty with all those foreclosed towers...

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muncien
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Re: DFW Economy

Postby muncien » 29 May 2019 10:56

I'm curious though... While the asking prices for many of these new products are no doubt 'luxury', how much of the product itself really is? Based on materials and build quality, I suspect the true cost of many of these buildings falls more in the mid range anyway. So, while many of them will see rate drops in the event of an economic slow down, I'm not so sure that will result in foreclosures so much as it will result in lower profit margins than expected.
High end condo towers such as Blue Ceil (check spelling) are far more risky, but being that we haven't developed hardly any of them, I suspect any losses there would be fairly limited.
This is all just arm chair real estate speculation, mind you...
"He doesn't know how to use the three seashells..."

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TNWE
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Re: DFW Economy

Postby TNWE » 29 May 2019 11:41

muncien wrote:I'm curious though... While the asking prices for many of these new products are no doubt 'luxury', how much of the product itself really is? Based on materials and build quality, I suspect the true cost of many of these buildings falls more in the mid range anyway. So, while many of them will see rate drops in the event of an economic slow down, I'm not so sure that will result in foreclosures so much as it will result in lower profit margins than expected.
High end condo towers such as Blue Ceil (check spelling) are far more risky, but being that we haven't developed hardly any of them, I suspect any losses there would be fairly limited.
This is all just arm chair real estate speculation, mind you...


I think the stick-frame donut-style "luxury" complexes will probably be fine and can handle a reduced margin- as I recall, many were built so the (low cost) stick construction could be scraped off and the podium re-used for a taller reinforced structure, so I'd guess the developer factored that in to their financial projections. It's the reinforced concrete high-rises that cost far more to construct that are more risky. All that extra expense is manageable (and profitable) in the short run as long as enough units are filled at the projected rents they used for making the build/no build decision. If there's not enough aggregate rental income to cover the financing/taxes, and the developer doesn't have enough in the rainy day fund to ride it out, it gets tougher.

In a downturn, those new towers are also competing against older high-rise stock, which has largely paid off the construction costs and only needs to cover taxes and whatever renovations are needed to keep it competitive. From my apartment hunting experience circa 2012, some of the older towers in Uptown were very close to the rents for newer donuts in the West End and Farmers market.

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Matt777
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Re: DFW Economy

Postby Matt777 » 29 May 2019 12:21

muncien wrote:I'm curious though... While the asking prices for many of these new products are no doubt 'luxury', how much of the product itself really is? Based on materials and build quality, I suspect the true cost of many of these buildings falls more in the mid range anyway. So, while many of them will see rate drops in the event of an economic slow down, I'm not so sure that will result in foreclosures so much as it will result in lower profit margins than expected.
High end condo towers such as Blue Ceil (check spelling) are far more risky, but being that we haven't developed hardly any of them, I suspect any losses there would be fairly limited.
This is all just arm chair real estate speculation, mind you...


You are correct. In an example where the land costs the same, building a complex with granite counters and nicer fixtures and pool is not much more expensive than building what TNWE thinks should be built, new complexes with I guess formica counters and cheaper fixtures. The difference in cost in negligible. The biggest cost comes from the structure and the land, not the finishes.

He does not understand that rents are not determined by finishes, but by supply and demand in a specific location or neighborhood. Of course nicer finished units will rent first and that's why developers spend a tad bit more to attract renters, to minimize time that a unit sits empty, but he seems to think that rents will fall if developers stop building nice complexes..... right....

An economic downturn will not result in a bunch of large apartment buildings going into foreclosure, another area where TNWE has no idea what he's talking about. Most of the large complexes are owned by huge funds and REITS, with a long term outlook. Smaller investors that own individual units or tiny complexes could get pinched, but we aren't going to see a Greystar for example suddenly have all their complexes foreclosed and boarded up. TNWE needs to come back to reality and stop this petty multi-thread attack against new housing units being built.

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The_Overdog
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Re: DFW Economy

Postby The_Overdog » 29 May 2019 12:34

Why are we even having this conversation? Because the one year projections for population are often wildly incorrect, permits in Dallas proper have not decreased in the past 2 years, and at least 3 cities/suburbs have authorized the construction of 4000+ new units each, many of which are 'starting soon', and apartment occupancy numbers in DFW are still in the high 90% ranges. Whoever is calling a 'slowdown' is straight up incorrect.

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TNWE
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Re: DFW Economy

Postby TNWE » 29 May 2019 15:28

Matt777 wrote:
muncien wrote:I'm curious though... While the asking prices for many of these new products are no doubt 'luxury', how much of the product itself really is? Based on materials and build quality, I suspect the true cost of many of these buildings falls more in the mid range anyway. So, while many of them will see rate drops in the event of an economic slow down, I'm not so sure that will result in foreclosures so much as it will result in lower profit margins than expected.
High end condo towers such as Blue Ceil (check spelling) are far more risky, but being that we haven't developed hardly any of them, I suspect any losses there would be fairly limited.
This is all just arm chair real estate speculation, mind you...


You are correct. In an example where the land costs the same, building a complex with granite counters and nicer fixtures and pool is not much more expensive than building what TNWE thinks should be built, new complexes with I guess formica counters and cheaper fixtures. The difference in cost in negligible. The biggest cost comes from the structure and the land, not the finishes.

He does not understand that rents are not determined by finishes, but by supply and demand in a specific location or neighborhood. Of course nicer finished units will rent first and that's why developers spend a tad bit more to attract renters, to minimize time that a unit sits empty, but he seems to think that rents will fall if developers stop building nice complexes..... right....

An economic downturn will not result in a bunch of large apartment buildings going into foreclosure, another area where TNWE has no idea what he's talking about. Most of the large complexes are owned by huge funds and REITS, with a long term outlook. Smaller investors that own individual units or tiny complexes could get pinched, but we aren't going to see a Greystar for example suddenly have all their complexes foreclosed and boarded up. TNWE needs to come back to reality and stop this petty multi-thread attack against new housing units being built.


You're entitled to your own opinion, not your own facts. You keep making up lies about what I've said RE: new housing developments. My point is, and always has been, that all the new development in the Core of Dallas is priced such that only high-income professionals can afford it. Your position is that "luxury" finishes don't add much to the cost of construction, but that's not the issue- it's about perceived value of those finishes. I've lived in numerous complexes where renovated (i.e. "Luxury") units rent for $100-200 more than the unrenovated units at the exact same point in time. Nicer finishes are all about selling a certain lifestyle, and people who desire the "Uptown" life or the "Loft" life will pay a premium far more than the hypothetical monthly cost of those nicer materials. Sure, maybe the market as a whole is trending upward, but stop pretending that nicer finishes are irrelevant to rents, or that its no big deal that the lower-wage employees who work in the stores and restaurants that make for a vibrant core now have to live further away from their jobs, in areas with worse transit.

Heck, even some not-so-wealthy people are paying far too much of their income on rent to live in desirable, close in neighborhoods (and as a result complaining that they can't afford to pay their student loans or save any money for a rainy day fund) because they've been sold a lie that they're part of the in-group and on the "Right Side of History" by eschewing the suburbs of their parent's generation. Newsflash- most people living in the those nice high-rises in the Dallas core STILL DRIVE EVERYWHERE, including to their jobs which are more than likely not in the CBD. I don't think we should be cheering for "Urbanist" developments when the majority of people living in them have a suburban, car-centric mindset.

This forum makes up a miniscule fraction of DFW residents, but the echo chamber of opinions on here has led some to believe that their ideas for Dallas have widespread, popular support, and they should be empowered to micromanage the decisions of every developer, government agency, and resident to mold Dallas according to that vision. Perhaps we could all chip in to buy Matt777 a copy of SimCity so he can spend his free time bulldozing virtual single-family homes instead of raging at people who disagree with his opinions on here.

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dukemeredith
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Re: DFW Economy

Postby dukemeredith » 29 May 2019 16:13

Maybe someone should create a separate, dedicated thread under City Issues/News in which forum members can debate their quasi-economic-based theorems on affordable housing (or the perceived lack thereof) in Dallas County.

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The_Overdog
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Re: DFW Economy

Postby The_Overdog » 29 May 2019 17:00

I've lived in numerous complexes where renovated (i.e. "Luxury") units rent for $100-200 more than the unrenovated units at the exact same point in time.


Oh my gosh your facts are now that 'renovations' aren't given away for free? Thanks for the tip.

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Matt777
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Re: DFW Economy

Postby Matt777 » 29 May 2019 20:57

TNWE wrote:This forum makes up a miniscule fraction of DFW residents, but the echo chamber of opinions on here has led some to believe that their ideas for Dallas have widespread, popular support, and they should be empowered to micromanage the decisions of every developer, government agency, and resident to mold Dallas according to that vision. Perhaps we could all chip in to buy Matt777 a copy of SimCity so he can spend his free time bulldozing virtual single-family homes instead of raging at people who disagree with his opinions on here.


Aren't you the one trying to micromanage Streetlights residential by raging against them being able to develop their empty property the way they see fit? I'm all for holding a developer accountable when they are doing something that's a negative for the neighborhood, but the only point you harp on is that you don't think residential developers should build luxury housing. And again, the personal attacks against me are getting tiresome and ridiculous. I'm not "raging at you," nor have I made any personal attacks like you have to me. I'm merely trying to correct you so you can get off the false bandwagon of "more housing units equals higher prices."

Prices WILL NOT go down until supply exceeds demand by a good amount. The only hope for prices to get more affordable are for developers to overbuild. Until then, prices will continue to be determined by supply and demand and economic factors like income, not finishes.

I mean it's a crumbling parking lot and a sad Pizza Hut express.... let it go. :lol:

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jetnd87
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Re: DFW Economy

Postby jetnd87 » 30 May 2019 09:10

Amen, Matt777

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TNWE
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Re: DFW Economy

Postby TNWE » 05 Jun 2019 14:08

Matt777: "Finishes are irrelevant to apartment rents"
Me: "Every complex I've ever lived in has charged more for an identical floorplan that has nicer finishes"
The_Overdog wrote:Oh my gosh your facts are now that 'renovations' aren't given away for free? Thanks for the tip.


Are you sure you thought that one all the way through before posting, Overdog? Post after post asserting that finishes have minimal impact on rents, and when presented with a counterexample, you completely abandon that assertion and suddenly claim that I'M the idiot who thinks landlords don't give away nicer apartments for free?

I'm absolutely shocked that you clicked "submit" on such an embarrassing self-own...

Matt777 wrote:Aren't you the one trying to micromanage Streetlights residential by raging against them being able to develop their empty property the way they see fit? I'm all for holding a developer accountable when they are doing something that's a negative for the neighborhood, but the only point you harp on is that you don't think residential developers should build luxury housing. And again, the personal attacks against me are getting tiresome and ridiculous. I'm not "raging at you," nor have I made any personal attacks like you have to me. I'm merely trying to correct you so you can get off the false bandwagon of "more housing units equals higher prices."


Please point to one post of mine where I said "Streetlights residential should not be allowed to construct a tower on this site."

Your deliberate misrepresentation of my position, and subsequent attempts to "correct" me for something I've never said are absolutely a personal attack.

I am capable of disliking a trend (in this case, the "Uptownification" of Oak Lawn) without suggesting that the full force of the city government be brought to bear against the developers driving that trend. Oak Lawn doesn't attract much spillover from Uptown because that demographic either doesn't want to be associated with the LGBT community, or they perceive it as old, gross, and unsafe, but the Eatzi's development is effectively plopping an Uptown tower in Oak Lawn. Suddenly, the sort of people who would deride those $800/month walkups on Rawlins street as "ghetto" will be bragging about the great deal they got on a $1200 studio around the corner to all their friends. Developments like these make it "safe" for the Uptown demographic to move in. You seem unconcerned because you got your "deal" in the neighborhood, but there are a lot of people who aren't excited about the prospect of "densification" turning their neighborhood into another Uptown, where people with more money and better jobs are outbidding them for housing in a suddenly desirable neighborhood.

I'm not saying I have a solution, but your "Urbanism and Density at all costs" agenda doesn't seem to be very concerned about displacing the current residents of Dallas' primary LGBT neighborhood (who no doubt value the sense of place and community it offers) for the inevitable demolition of everything along Rawlins street so a developer can build 5 more cookie cutter high-rises to accommodate people who don't care about any of your Urbanist principles, because the vast majority of upwardly mobile, high-SES college grads coming to DFW for professional jobs Still. Love. Their. Cars. Sure, they'll walk to Eatzi's because it's right there, and maybe a few other places close by. But the typical renter in these sort of developments is very suburban in their mindset- everyone has their own car, wouldn't be caught dead riding a bus (and only rides the train to Mavs games and St. Paddys), and are not at all put off by the idea of 2-3 hours in traffic commuting to the burbs for their job. You're cheering for "Urbanist" developments that still have all the negative externalities of suburbs.

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Cord1936
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Re: DFW Economy

Postby Cord1936 » 07 Jun 2019 18:18

As long as the area continues to add jobs at this level of robust activity, economic growth across most categories will continue ...
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DFW Will Add Jobs in 2019, Analysts Predict

Dallas-Fort Worth is expected to add 105,000 new jobs this year, analysis by researchers at Marcus & Millichap found.

“Recently announced employment expansions by Allstate and Texas Instruments expected to come to fruition over the next several years highlight the metro’s economic diversity,” analysts said.

The company also forecasts that 3.1 million square feet of retail construction will be completed in DFW by the end of 2019, vacancies will drop 30 basis points, and rents will increase 4.8 percent.

Source: Marcus & Millichamp

Actual article for above report: https://candysdirt.com/2019/06/03/rent-increases-in-arlington-are-among-highest-in-nation/?utm_source=Candy+Evans+-+All+Subscribers&utm_campaign=c2f52f3939-RSS_EMAIL_CAMPAIGN&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_bd2a6dc536-c2f52f3939-16460437

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Matt777
Posts: 648
Joined: 28 Oct 2016 09:10

Re: DFW Economy

Postby Matt777 » 08 Jun 2019 13:18

TNWE wrote:Matt777: "Finishes are irrelevant to apartment rents"
Me: "Every complex I've ever lived in has charged more for an identical floorplan that has nicer finishes"
The_Overdog wrote:Oh my gosh your facts are now that 'renovations' aren't given away for free? Thanks for the tip.


Are you sure you thought that one all the way through before posting, Overdog? Post after post asserting that finishes have minimal impact on rents, and when presented with a counterexample, you completely abandon that assertion and suddenly claim that I'M the idiot who thinks landlords don't give away nicer apartments for free?

I'm absolutely shocked that you clicked "submit" on such an embarrassing self-own...

Matt777 wrote:Aren't you the one trying to micromanage Streetlights residential by raging against them being able to develop their empty property the way they see fit? I'm all for holding a developer accountable when they are doing something that's a negative for the neighborhood, but the only point you harp on is that you don't think residential developers should build luxury housing. And again, the personal attacks against me are getting tiresome and ridiculous. I'm not "raging at you," nor have I made any personal attacks like you have to me. I'm merely trying to correct you so you can get off the false bandwagon of "more housing units equals higher prices."


Please point to one post of mine where I said "Streetlights residential should not be allowed to construct a tower on this site."

Your deliberate misrepresentation of my position, and subsequent attempts to "correct" me for something I've never said are absolutely a personal attack.

I am capable of disliking a trend (in this case, the "Uptownification" of Oak Lawn) without suggesting that the full force of the city government be brought to bear against the developers driving that trend. Oak Lawn doesn't attract much spillover from Uptown because that demographic either doesn't want to be associated with the LGBT community, or they perceive it as old, gross, and unsafe, but the Eatzi's development is effectively plopping an Uptown tower in Oak Lawn. Suddenly, the sort of people who would deride those $800/month walkups on Rawlins street as "ghetto" will be bragging about the great deal they got on a $1200 studio around the corner to all their friends. Developments like these make it "safe" for the Uptown demographic to move in. You seem unconcerned because you got your "deal" in the neighborhood, but there are a lot of people who aren't excited about the prospect of "densification" turning their neighborhood into another Uptown, where people with more money and better jobs are outbidding them for housing in a suddenly desirable neighborhood.

I'm not saying I have a solution, but your "Urbanism and Density at all costs" agenda doesn't seem to be very concerned about displacing the current residents of Dallas' primary LGBT neighborhood (who no doubt value the sense of place and community it offers) for the inevitable demolition of everything along Rawlins street so a developer can build 5 more cookie cutter high-rises to accommodate people who don't care about any of your Urbanist principles, because the vast majority of upwardly mobile, high-SES college grads coming to DFW for professional jobs Still. Love. Their. Cars. Sure, they'll walk to Eatzi's because it's right there, and maybe a few other places close by. But the typical renter in these sort of developments is very suburban in their mindset- everyone has their own car, wouldn't be caught dead riding a bus (and only rides the train to Mavs games and St. Paddys), and are not at all put off by the idea of 2-3 hours in traffic commuting to the burbs for their job. You're cheering for "Urbanist" developments that still have all the negative externalities of suburbs.


I really would like to end this conversation. I tried not to respond. But your points and accusations are all over the place. If you've ever followed me on this forum, I do NOT like older urban housing stock being torn down when it has value to the neighborhood or is well maintained. I DO LIKE when useless suburban crap like this pizza hut/gas station is replaced with urban, pedestrian friendly, dense developments that add housing stock to a market hungry for housing stock. LESS people will be displaced because of this. MORE people will walk to eat, shop, run errands if we have more development like this where businesses are in close proximity to residences. Dallas isn't going to be 100% pedestrian friendly overnight but we have been taking steps in the right direction, and need to continue that.

Many proposed developments accomplish the same thing as this one, without tearing down existing housing stock, but people like you come out with pitchforks on here and facebook saying "this is going to raise rents!" The new apartments around Zang and Davis in Oak Cliff and the proposed highrise near the Farmer's Market come to mind. All net new housing units. Yet people still come out like you, saying "this new housing supply will raise my rents!"

You were wrong about that. You still are. And you won't stop urbanism. Sorry. Oak Lawn has had highrise development for ~100 years. It had streetcars. The suburban crapfest you love, where you can do everything from the comfort of your vehicle seat, will be less and less viable for a multitude of reasons beyond Dallas itself.

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Cord1936
Posts: 230
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Location: Henderson @ Belmont

Re: DFW Economy

Postby Cord1936 » 19 Jun 2019 12:39

Dallas moves up 2 spots in latest tech survey:
-----------------------------------------------
ImageDallas Skyline w Flooded Trinity by Joseph Haubert, on Flickr

Dallas among top places for IT pros when they’re looking to put down roots, study says
By Brian Womack, Dallas Business Journal, June 19, 2019

North Texas took the No. 4 spot of where IT pros were most likely to want to live, according to CompTIA, or the Computing Technology Industry Association. No. 1 was Austin, followed by Colorado Springs, Colo., and Seattle.

The biggest factor by far for those looking for the right place to live was the overall cost of living. The percentage of those citing the factor was 82 percent, far outpacing other reasons.

The Dallas area is benefitting from interest from tech companies and workers seeking out a new place to locate. The city is among a list of places Uber Technologies is considering for a new expansion site, and a decision could be made by late August.

The “Tech on the Move” study found that 78 percent of tech workers would consider leaving their current city for a new job, citing affordability, 60 percent, and local economy, 56 percent, as major factors driving the decision. The research is based on a survey of 916 IT professionals and students conducted in April.
...
The research follows a report by CompTIA last year that looked at the the top “Tech Towns,” based on factors such as cost of living and projected job growth. The Dallas area took the No. 6 spot in that report.

Article: https://www.bizjournals.com/dallas/news/2019/06/19/dallas-it-pros-comptia.html?ana=e_n_set3&mkt_tok=eyJpIjoiTUROaU5qQXpOak0zWVRNMCIsInQiOiJGbmZBd01qa0dmWlRXMlVjSXh1a0Z2SDE3bm5MWXZQMXNUdnVMN0NsS1ArZzhIVW9VMjAxM2tLYkFXNGZPSDVMNXpkVlFQdGdDaWdOcjloMEhVa2xPYzZ2MElKc1hqcjQ5eHVyc2RhMWRiU1FCQXZ6Yk5HOXZoWWVIdVJmXC9DRDcifQ%3D%3D

Tnexster
Posts: 2076
Joined: 22 Oct 2016 16:33
Location: Dallas

Re: DFW Economy

Postby Tnexster » 21 Jun 2019 11:46

Texas, U.S. construction is headed for a slowdown

https://www.dallasnews.com/business/rea ... d-slowdown

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Cord1936
Posts: 230
Joined: 02 Apr 2017 20:43
Location: Henderson @ Belmont

Re: DFW Economy

Postby Cord1936 » 03 Jul 2019 20:40

Image

Who Said Retail Is A Bust? It’s Actually Booming In DFW, Reports Say
July 2, 2019 Kerri Panchuk, Bisnow Dallas

Construction related to retail in DFW rose 18% for the quarter with 2.6M SF of retail space under development — a statistic that shows while retail is changing in the face of technology, brick-and-mortar itself is not dead.

With the DFW area attracting 132,000 residents from 2017 to 2018 and unemployment at 3%, its lowest rate in 20 years, retail is actually on a positive path, according to CBRE.
...
"In Dallas-Fort Worth, retail comprises 24% of all commercial property space and 12% of employment, adding over 77,000 new retail jobs since 2010."
...
"Dallas-Fort Worth has led the nation with 3.8M SF of net absorption during the past 12 months, followed by Houston with 3.4M SF," he wrote.

Article: https://www.bisnow.com/dallas-ft-worth/ ... um=Browser

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Cord1936
Posts: 230
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Location: Henderson @ Belmont

Re: DFW Economy

Postby Cord1936 » 14 Jul 2019 15:00

Didn't know exactly where to put this ... so placed it here.

When clicking on the image it takes you to the original image on Flickr ...

When hovering cursor over different areas on the original image it reveals where the most visited spots are in Dallas including the Galleria, Northpark, SMU/Knox-Henderson, Arboretum & Botanical Gardens, Fair Park & Cotton Bowl, Deep Ellum, Arts District/Dallas World Aquarium, American Airlines Center/Victory Park, Dealey Plaza, Dallas Zoo, Cow Statues (???), Dallas Love Field, Former site of Irving Stadium (???), and California Crossing Park (???).
------------------------------------------------------
ImageLocals and Tourists #80 (GTWA #135): Dallas by Eric Fischer, on Flickr

Tourists Versus Locals, Mapping Who Visits Where in Dallas
By Candy's Dirt, July 9, 2019

Article: https://candysdirt.com/2019/07/09/touri ... 4-16460437

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Cord1936
Posts: 230
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Location: Henderson @ Belmont

Re: DFW Economy

Postby Cord1936 » 14 Aug 2019 23:12

Image
Image courtesy of Roman Reyna on Flickr

DFW Tops Nation in Apartment Construction
New report shows the DFW Metroplex way ahead of country's second hottest market, Washington, D.C.

By Ben Russell, NBC5, Published Aug 14, 2019 at 5:58 AM | Updated at 8:42 AM CDT on Aug 14, 2019

There are more apartments under construction in Dallas-Fort Worth than anywhere else in the country, according to a new ranking from RealPage.

There are approximately 43,034 apartment units currently being built in the region, which is considerably more than the number of apartments under construction — 29,203 — in the Washington, D.C. area, which RealPage ranks as the second most active market for apartment construction.

Continued job growth in the Dallas-Fort Worth area has fueled the increased demand for new apartments, according to industry insiders.

And according to a recent report from the National Apartment Association (NAA), demand for new apartment units is not likely to decline anytime soon.

"The Metroplex needs 227,000 rental units by 2030 to meet growing demand from an expanding population," the NAA noted in a news release.

The average monthly rent for an apartment in DFW is $1,125, according to the NAA.

"Without this supply growth, rents on existing apartments would be increasing at a faster rate due to normal supply and demand," said Adam Auensen, VP of Acquisitions and Development of Tonti Properties, the company behind several local projects, including the Trinity Union complex in Euless, which will consist of 458 apartment homes when it is completed. "So new development is an important factor for maintaining overall affordability."

Article: https://www.nbcdfw.com/news/business/DFW-Tops-Nation-in-Apartment-Construction-541743751.html

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homeworld1031tx
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Re: DFW Economy

Postby homeworld1031tx » 15 Aug 2019 12:58

Huh, if there are ~40k units under construction right now, with most of them taking about 1 year to deliver, and we only needs 230k 11 years out, it seems like we're slightly over building at the moment. 40k units also seems incredibly high, last I remember the average (high) numbers were like 25k/year.

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The_Overdog
Posts: 417
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Re: DFW Economy

Postby The_Overdog » 16 Aug 2019 09:39

and we only needs 230k 11 years out, it seems like we're slightly over building at the moment. 40k units also seems incredibly high, last I remember the average (high) numbers were like 25k/year.


I think the distinction is 'under construction' vs 'permitted'. We permit about 25k a year, but more are under construction because construction generally takes longer than 1 year. The number permitted puts us at #2 or #3 in the entire US, so still not bad.

Also I'm sorry for the capital financiers of these places if we are overbuilding, but it's good for everyone else, including affordability metrics, so right on.

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muncien
Posts: 899
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Location: Cypress Waters

Re: DFW Economy

Postby muncien » 16 Aug 2019 10:13

The_Overdog wrote:
and we only needs 230k 11 years out, it seems like we're slightly over building at the moment. 40k units also seems incredibly high, last I remember the average (high) numbers were like 25k/year.


I think the distinction is 'under construction' vs 'permitted'. We permit about 25k a year, but more are under construction because construction generally takes longer than 1 year. The number permitted puts us at #2 or #3 in the entire US, so still not bad.

Also I'm sorry for the capital financiers of these places if we are overbuilding, but it's good for everyone else, including affordability metrics, so right on.


I was about to say the same thing... I have been following the Cypress Waters construction quite closely since I moved here, and it easily takes 18 months (or more) for these to come online. While these units do have nice external finishes, they are still only 4-6 story stick builds wrapping a garage... so, pretty typical.
"He doesn't know how to use the three seashells..."

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tamtagon
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Re: DFW Economy

Postby tamtagon » 16 Aug 2019 12:22

The_Overdog wrote:Also I'm sorry for the capital financiers of these places if we are overbuilding, but it's good for everyone else, including affordability metrics, so right on.


It's possible some other markets are currently being overbuilt; domestic growth is being affected by politics more than usual, so I would expect the unprecedented expansion to slow after the holidays, thereby putting most markets into deceleration, some into slow growth and a handful of markets like North Texas will register moderate growth. North Texas will stay in the top three of new commercial construction and employment growth with levels only dipping as much as a third (whenever things cool a bit), but population growth will stay about the same, maybe increase - dwelling construction will continue.

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Cord1936
Posts: 230
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Location: Henderson @ Belmont

Re: DFW Economy

Postby Cord1936 » 27 Aug 2019 18:33

Dallas-Plano-Irving leads the state in job growth year-over-year
Texas A&M Real Estate Center, August 23, 2019

Quote: All Texas metro areas except Victoria had more jobs. Dallas-Plano-Irving ranked first in job creation followed by Killeen-Temple-Fort Hood, Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, Odessa, McAllen-Edinburg-Mission, and Austin-Round Rock.

Full article: https://www.recenter.tamu.edu/news/newstalk-texas/?Item=22976

I45Tex
Posts: 207
Joined: 26 Jan 2017 05:52

Re: DFW Economy

Postby I45Tex » 29 Aug 2019 10:47

I knew Killeen wasn't creating larger numbers of jobs than Austin. The blurb quoted here refers to their annual rate of percentage growth this year.

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The_Overdog
Posts: 417
Joined: 21 Oct 2016 14:55

Re: DFW Economy

Postby The_Overdog » 29 Aug 2019 11:06

All Texas industries except the information industry had more jobs.


This line right here is why DFW is working hard (and paying lots) to import tech talent. We are currently not able to grow our local talent every quarter for whatever reason.

DPatel304
Posts: 1510
Joined: 19 Oct 2016 18:49
Location: Turtle Creek

Re: DFW Economy

Postby DPatel304 » 29 Aug 2019 11:08

I45Tex wrote:I knew Killeen wasn't creating larger numbers of jobs than Austin. The blurb quoted here refers to their annual rate of percentage growth this year.


I figured as much. With that said, that's impressive that DFW topped that list. If we are going by percentage growth, DFW and Houston are at a pretty big disadvantage.

I45Tex
Posts: 207
Joined: 26 Jan 2017 05:52

Re: DFW Economy

Postby I45Tex » 29 Aug 2019 14:23

DPatel, TAMU prefers to split Tarrant and its suburbs off from the Dallas part of the Metroplex for reporting purposes.

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Cord1936
Posts: 230
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Re: DFW Economy

Postby Cord1936 » 31 Aug 2019 00:00

Council approves $5.7 million in incentives to bring Kroger online grocery warehouse to Dallas
By David Goins, WFAA.com, Aug. 28, 2019

DALLAS — Kroger sees Dallas as a key piece in its long-range strategy for online grocery delivery.

That vision took a step forward Wednesday with the Dallas City Council approving about $5.7 million in incentives and tax abatements to bring a 55-acre "customer fulfillment center" to southern Dallas.

The 350,000-square-foot robotic grocery location will fit in line with Kroger's plan to build 20 of the facilities across the country to increase its competition with Amazon and Walmart in the food delivery space.
....
In order to receive the economic incentives, the grocer has agreed to hire at least 410 employees with a minimum starting wage at $15 an hour.
....
Dallas Mayor Eric Johnson said the project will reward the hiring of people who live in the city.

"I believe it’s sending the message — along with what we did a couple weeks ago with the Uber deal — that Dallas is truly a 21st-century city and we’re open for business," Johnson said.

https://www.wfaa.com/mobile/article/news/local/council-approves-57-million-in-incentives-to-bring-kroger-online-grocery-warehouse-to-dallas/287-840f3583-dcfa-488d-9f8a-f9c6aef94e53

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Cord1936
Posts: 230
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Re: DFW Economy

Postby Cord1936 » 13 Sep 2019 22:38

DFW Needs To Build 19,000 Apartments Annually To Keep Up With Demand
By Kerri Panchuk, Dallas BisNow, September 11, 2019

Apartments are a huge part of the Dallas-Fort Worth economy, responsible for billions of dollars and tens of thousands of jobs a year, and yet there are not nearly enough of them.

The Dallas-Fort Worth area needs to build 19,000 apartments every year to keep up with demand, a new Hoyt Advisory Study commissioned by the National Apartment Association and the National Multifamily Housing Council says.

The report shows apartment construction in DFW alone contributes $8.4B to the local economy on an annual basis and creates 36,000 jobs.

Combined, DFW apartments and their residents grace the local economy with about $98.5B in expenditures each year, supporting roughly 428,000 jobs.

And when it comes to apartment rehabilitation and renovation projects, DFW shows its economic potential with renovations and repairs alone pushing about $2B into the local economy and creating up to 7,000 jobs yearly, the report said.
....
Read more at: https://www.bisnow.com/dallas-ft-worth/ ... um=Browser


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