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Downtown Progress

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Matt777
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Re: Downtown Progress

Postby Matt777 » 05 Dec 2017 10:00

Tucy wrote:And in reality, it would take a lot more than 11,000 units. 1.75 occupants per unit is very unlikely to ever happen. 1.4 is more likely, at full occupancy. 20,000 people at 1.4 per unit requires more than 14,000 new units. That's crazy talk. Doesn't even pass the giggle test.


As I said before, I think this is with the expectation of Amazon coming.... and showing Amazon that we have a plan to absorb tens of thousands of new residents in the core. I don't think they're saying 20,000 people are moving downtown for sure, just that it can and it's feasible. If Amazon announced tens of thousands of jobs in Downtown Dallas, financing for new residential towers would be easy to get and you would see a construction frenzy. The land is there, the infrastructure is there, the plan is there, the transit is there, now there just needs to be an influx of jobs and it is all possible

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tamtagon
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Re: Downtown Progress

Postby tamtagon » 05 Dec 2017 10:15

Seems like they mean 20,000 in five years up from 11,000, not 11+20=31,000.... but whatever. With what's going right now we could add 30% more residents, so there's a lot to do.

To follow along as a North Texas sub-market receives 10,000 new units within five years is not outrageous, the perimeter of the population center has experienced population/inventory growth like this for decades... maybe we're just surprised because it is anticipated to happen in the middle of town. I've been looking forward to this since the CityPlace West Village TIF was approved.

Fifteen years for everything to take root, 15 years for everything to really become established, it's about time. Dallas will be a "Place" in a few more years, finally.

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Matt777
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Re: Downtown Progress

Postby Matt777 » 05 Dec 2017 10:21

tamtagon wrote:Fifteen years for everything to take root, 15 years for everything to really become established, it's about time. Dallas will be a "Place" in a few more years, finally.


True, but I think a better way to phrase that would be Dallas will be a place AGAIN in a few more years. The urban core was a thriving "place" before the freeways, white flight, and general neighborhood destruction of the 70s/80s.

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Tucy
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Re: Downtown Progress

Postby Tucy » 05 Dec 2017 10:22

I found it on Page 3 of the Report. I'm pretty sure we're victims of journalism malpractice.

The slide says "50,000+ residents within 2.5 miles". I take that to mean there are currently more than 50,000 residents within 2.5 miles of the CBD. It also says "20,000+ more residents next 2-5 years". I take that to mean they project more than 20,000 additional residents within 2.5 miles of the CBD in the next 2-5 years. That is a rational (although still aggressive, especially the 2-year side) projection. The slide could have been presented more clearly, but that is the only rational interpretation.

http://dallascityhall.com/government/Co ... 120417.pdf

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tamtagon
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Re: Downtown Progress

Postby tamtagon » 05 Dec 2017 12:15

^ya, the loosy-goosy reporting goes with the news-entertainment format infesting just about every network affiliate local news time slot. So, the five year estimate looks for about 10,000 new residents a year in the Greater Downtown Dallas Area.... that data does follow the trend of the past decade, and considering contemporary housing complexes hold twice or a little more residents than the two-generation garden apartments currently being replaced, 10,000 a year sounds aggressive because we're not used to it happening.

I hope those folks rewiring the downtown area bus system are out in front of this.

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Tivo_Kenevil
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Re: Downtown Progress

Postby Tivo_Kenevil » 05 Dec 2017 13:21

tamtagon wrote:I hope those folks rewiring the downtown area bus system are out in front of this.


I don't think they know what buses are yet.

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The_Overdog
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Re: Downtown Progress

Postby The_Overdog » 05 Dec 2017 14:09

The slide says "50,000+ residents within 2.5 miles".


I think the circular graphic represents the population area they are referring to. It includes portions of the Design District, Riverfront District, Oak Cliff, The Cedars, Downtown, South Dallas/Fair Park, and Old East Dallas.

That's an area of 19 sq miles if I got my math right (2.5mile radius) so 50,000 in 19 sq miles is 2500 people per sq mile. 70,000 in 19 sq miles is about 3500 per sq mile.

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Tucy
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Re: Downtown Progress

Postby Tucy » 05 Dec 2017 14:50

tamtagon wrote:^ So, the five year estimate looks for about 10,000 new residents a year in the Greater Downtown Dallas Area.... that data does follow the trend of the past decade, and considering contemporary housing complexes hold twice or a little more residents than the two-generation garden apartments currently being replaced, 10,000 a year sounds aggressive because we're not used to it happening.


I guess at the high end you could say they are looking for about 10,000 new residents a year in the Greater Downtown area (20,000 in 2-5 years). At the "low" end, it would be more like 4,000 per year. Even the low end seems ambitious.

The report tells us that Greater Downtown grew by 169.5% between in the 12 years According to the report, Greater Downtown has grown by about 30,000 people in the 12 years 2004-2016. That was about 2,500 new residents per year. So they are looking for 60-400% faster growth over the next 5 years than we experienced in the previous 12? On what basis did they make such a forecast?

Indeed we are not used to seeing 10,000 per year growth in our greater downtown area, and I don't expect we'll have any reason to get used to such aggressive growth either. I'm genuinely curious on what basis they made those growth projections.

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fractal
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Re: Downtown Progress

Postby fractal » 05 Dec 2017 22:08

If you haven't read the updated plan yet, there's some good stuff for anyone paying attention starting ~pg 50.

-shows orientation of future perot museum building.
-removal of field ramp from woodall
-orientation of South Asian museum and highrise. "Design dart train portal to facilitate development over it."
-removal of live oak ramp from 345
-redevelopment of east transfer center.
-deck parks
-making convention center station active and useable/accessable/not-dangerous-feeling

It seems overly ambitious, but the team in charge of the 360 plan managed to beat their own projections of 10k in the loop and 50k in greater downtown, and has completed a respectable number of projects and goals, so I guess we'll see.

DPatel304
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Re: Downtown Progress

Postby DPatel304 » 06 Dec 2017 01:05

Tucy wrote:The report tells us that Greater Downtown grew by 169.5% between in the 12 years According to the report, Greater Downtown has grown by about 30,000 people in the 12 years 2004-2016. That was about 2,500 new residents per year. So they are looking for 60-400% faster growth over the next 5 years than we experienced in the previous 12? On what basis did they make such a forecast?


I totally agree with your sentiment about the prediction being extremely ambitious. However, I'm curious to know what the growth breakdown is per year for the past 12 years. Specifically, I wonder what growth has been like for the past 2-3 years.

Again, I'm not really agreeing with their predictions, but, I'm just curious to know how the 4,000 per year compares to the last 2-3 years.

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tamtagon
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Re: Downtown Progress

Postby tamtagon » 06 Dec 2017 09:29

Tucy wrote:
tamtagon wrote:... that data does follow the trend of the past decade...


...The report tells us that Greater Downtown grew by 169.5% between in the 12 years According to the report, Greater Downtown has grown by about 30,000 people in the 12 years 2004-2016. That was about 2,500 new residents per year. So they are looking for 60-400% faster growth over the next 5 years than we experienced in the previous 12? On what basis did they make such a forecast?


I didn't read the report, maybe the basis of the forecast is included.

Among North Texas housing submarkets entering a stage of rapid growth, it's common to see such very high rate-of-change %. The recession slowed housing inventory growth, so maybe the next five years will make up for it. Until people stop wanting to live packed into the city, the population growth trend of the past decade will continue.

Now, look at it this way: the CBD population change from 2000 to ~2010 was up and astonishing 2,500% and the change from 2000 to 2017 is an even more astonishing 5,500%!!! WOW With percentages like that, 60-400% is peanuts.


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