Dallas Fort Worth Urban Forum

DFW Economy

DPatel304
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Re: DFW Economy

Postby DPatel304 » 04 Oct 2019 13:48

I think, in the long run, they'll probably be fine. Eventually Dallas will start to fill up and become more and more expensive, and, at that point, Fort Worth becomes more and more attractive. I do think that will take sometime though, as Dallas seems to be just now hitting its stride.

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Tivo_Kenevil
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Re: DFW Economy

Postby Tivo_Kenevil » 04 Oct 2019 14:00

Hannibal Lecter wrote:Q: What's the one thing Fort Worth has that Dallas doesn't?

A: A major city 30 miles away.


You Savage, you!

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Tivo_Kenevil
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Re: DFW Economy

Postby Tivo_Kenevil » 04 Oct 2019 14:04

IMO, Ft. Worth just misses the mark for a lot people. They wanna be known as "cow town"; which is cool, but it really doesn't appeal to alot people, including corporations who are looking to offer something that appeals to their workers.

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flyswatter
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Re: DFW Economy

Postby flyswatter » 04 Oct 2019 14:52

I'd love to see how Minneapolis vs. St Paul match up and how that compares to Dallas vs. Ft Worth.

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Tivo_Kenevil
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Re: DFW Economy

Postby Tivo_Kenevil » 04 Oct 2019 15:16

flyswatter wrote:I'd love to see how Minneapolis vs. St Paul match up and how that compares to Dallas vs. Ft Worth.

Never been. But I head Minneapolis is quite nice.

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Tivo_Kenevil
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Re: DFW Economy

Postby Tivo_Kenevil » 04 Oct 2019 15:18

flyswatter wrote:I'd love to see how Minneapolis vs. St Paul match up and how that compares to Dallas vs. Ft Worth.

Never been. But I hear Minneapolis is quite nice. No one ever talks about St. Paul; so there's that.

cowboyeagle05
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Re: DFW Economy

Postby cowboyeagle05 » 04 Oct 2019 16:36

It's funny I could have easily read the same article as meaning Dallas isn't a great place to live. Why sit in terrible traffic for three hours or even an hour when you could live in a great Dallas neighborhood but people choose the drive. Even some new transplants buy a car and adapt to car-based life not because they hated transit in another city just they adapt to the way our system is designed.

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tamtagon
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Re: DFW Economy

Postby tamtagon » 04 Oct 2019 20:19

Hannibal Lecter wrote:Q: What's the one thing Fort Worth has that Dallas doesn't?

A: A major city 30 miles away.



“We’re still somewhat overshadowed by the Dallas region,” said Robert Sturns, Fort Worth economic development director.

hahaha

cowboyeagle05
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Re: DFW Economy

Postby cowboyeagle05 » 05 Oct 2019 10:27

Also because DFW isnt centrally economically driven housing prices don't necessarily cost less just by not being in Downtown for example. In some cases, I can pay less living in Oak Lawn than living in Legacy, Plano or even parts of cities like Garland.

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tamtagon
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Re: DFW Economy

Postby tamtagon » 05 Oct 2019 11:49

There's barely interest enough for one old school "downtown" in any Sunbelt population center; the corporate campus cornerstone of supreme suburban development starting in the 80s turned into Mixed Use New Urbanism --- an ironic term many people want to use when measuring success or failure of a traditional central business district.

The measuring stick of "city living" currently possible in cities built before air conditioned suburbs (New York, Chicago, San Francisco, Boston, Detroit{hands up for Detroit}) still applies those remnants of Sunbelt cities like Dallas and Fort Worth. Municipal decision makers are just as confused today as they were in the 60/70s, 80/90s, and 00/10s and continue the debilitating, compulsive envy of how fast the edge of town changes. Dallas has made remarkable improvement to reinvent city living, but the incentives are still geared toward businesses. Even the parks the city has built touts how companies like that sort of thing.

Focus on the people living in the neighborhood and everything else will fall into place. It's always been this way, and likely always will be that way. There's nothing wrong with an entire sections of a street grid that are dormant at night and busy during the day with suburban office workers. The adjacent residential neighborhoods need a buffer, and a quieter stretch of street in between. Anyway....

Fort Worth is ideally positioned to become a two night - three day destination for the vast population of the Greater Dallas Trading Area and South Central US. Proud and impressive, Fort Worth seems reluctant to accept this role since it's not directly competing against Dallas, but it's a need that will only increase among residents of the South Central US. Half of the overnight tourism stays in greater downtown Fort Worth should come from next door Dallas and Collin Counties.

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Cord1936
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Re: DFW Economy

Postby Cord1936 » 05 Oct 2019 14:59

tamtagon wrote:Proud and impressive, Fort Worth seems reluctant to accept this role since it's not directly competing against Dallas, ...

^^^^^^^
bed·room com·mu·ni·ty
noun NORTH AMERICAN
"a residential suburb inhabited largely by people who commute to a nearby city for work"

There's been a series of articles over the last several years discussing the fact that Ft. Worth and Tarrant County "are in danger of becoming a bedroom community to Dallas:"

https://www.star-telegram.com/news/local/fort-worth/article189415729.html
https://www.nbcdfw.com/news/local/Study-Fort-Worth--465393913.html
https://www.dmagazine.com/frontburner/2018/01/is-fort-worth-as-doomed-as-this-500-page-report-makes-it-seem/
https://www.dmagazine.com/publications/d-ceo/2018/september/fort-worth-is-trying-to-escape-dallas-shadow/
https://www.star-telegram.com/news/business/growth/article235435372.html

The latest Census Bureau statistics, and the latest Ft. Worth Star Telegram article, confirm in fact that seems to have become reality. To wit:

"But a large number of Fort Worth residents — nearly 192,000 people — still leaves the city for work, Census data shows. Between 2005-14, the percentage of commuters leaving Fort Worth jumped from 53% to 62%."

62%! That is a HUGE NUMBER commuting out of Ft. Worth daily, primarily to Dallas and Dallas County, for work.

Quite frankly, if the Federal Government had not forced Dallas to build its replacement airport for Love Field midway between Dallas and Tarrant Counties, Ft. Worth simply would not have had the growth that it has enjoyed since DFW Airport was built.

The region as a whole has benefited from DFW, that is for certain. But Dallas was originally going to build its new replacement airport for Love Field within its own city limits ... but the Federal subsidies and support needed to build a huge new international airport for Dallas forced the location westward. Speaker of the House at the time, Jim Wright of Ft. Worth, had a heavy influence on this.

DFW Airport has been the driving factor in Northeast Tarrant County's growth, particularly Alliance, that Ft. Worth annexed to be inside its city limits ... just as they reached out to annex a little finger of land to grab AA's original headquarters off Hwy 360 so it, too, would be in their city limits.

Practically any and all significant growth seen in Tarrant County has largely occurred on the far eastern side of the county ... closest to Dallas and DFW Airport.

If someone wanted to be harsh they could say Tarrant has largely been receiving the economic crumbs leftover from Dallas ... and the crumbs have been large enough to cause a nice level of growth in residential development in general and with significant job growth around Alliance specifically.

By and far in the larger picture, Dallas was, is and will continue to be the towering economic and financial giant to the East that has a synergy and momentum that will power Dallas and Dallas Metro's booming growth for decades to come.

Especially if Dallas city leaders wake up and realize the need to bring zoning for the greater central Dallas core (along with Dallas' various satellite downtowns) into the 21st century and start allowing denser and taller developments to encourage and increase density.

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The_Overdog
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Re: DFW Economy

Postby The_Overdog » 07 Oct 2019 09:29

62%! That is a HUGE NUMBER commuting out of Ft. Worth daily, primarily to Dallas and Dallas County, for work.


That is a huge number, considering in your average true suburb there are still local workers like shopkeepers/cleaners/restaurants/teachers/government workers etc, so that a commute percent that even gets to 50% is high.

Tnexster
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Re: DFW Economy

Postby Tnexster » 07 Oct 2019 10:58

While Forth Worth was obsessing over Dallas, Plano happened.

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dukemeredith
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Re: DFW Economy

Postby dukemeredith » 07 Oct 2019 13:29

Grant Senter has a terrific job with a startup health care firm in Dallas, and yet he chooses to live in Fort Worth.

Each day, he spends three hours commuting, making the 43-mile trip to and from his home near Eagle Mountain Lake.

“We lived in Dallas for a year, and hated it. I like to say Dallas is like LA without the beach,” said Senter, 27, who has lived in Fort Worth for four years.


I can't trust the opinion of someone who thinks it's reasonable to commute 3 hours each day.

I'd understand if the crazy commute was because cost of living in Dallas was astronomical, like NYC or San Francisco. But it isn't. There are plenty of inexpensive neighborhoods and suburbs within a 1 hour one-way commute of Dallas, including traffic (which is still borderline unreasonable, for me, personally).

That guy is losing 15 hours of his life every week going to and from work.
Insane.

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Tucy
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Re: DFW Economy

Postby Tucy » 07 Oct 2019 14:10

Cord1936 wrote:The latest Census Bureau statistics, and the latest Ft. Worth Star Telegram article, confirm in fact that seems to have become reality. To wit:

"But a large number of Fort Worth residents — nearly 192,000 people — still leaves the city for work, Census data shows. Between 2005-14, the percentage of commuters leaving Fort Worth jumped from 53% to 62%."

62%! That is a HUGE NUMBER commuting out of Ft. Worth daily, primarily to Dallas and Dallas County, for work.


That is a huge number, but I don't think there's any reason for your conclusion that those commuters are primarily going to Dallas and Dallas County. Since this is a Fort Worth number, not a Tarrant County number, I suspect they are primarily going elsewhere in Tarrant County. It's instructive that the same article tells us that "nearly 16%" of Tarrant County workers commute to Dallas, so it is unlikely that a significantly higher percentage of Fort Worth workers commute to Dallas.

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The_Overdog
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Re: DFW Economy

Postby The_Overdog » 07 Oct 2019 15:59

I can't trust the opinion of someone who thinks it's reasonable to commute 3 hours each day.

In his defense, he's a 'lake guy' (lives on Eagle Mountain Lake) and I believe Eagle Mountain is the closest (or one of the closest) lakes to DFW where you can own waterfront and build a boatdock.

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Tivo_Kenevil
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Re: DFW Economy

Postby Tivo_Kenevil » 07 Oct 2019 17:55

The_Overdog wrote:
I can't trust the opinion of someone who thinks it's reasonable to commute 3 hours each day.

In his defense, he's a 'lake guy' (lives on Eagle Mountain Lake) and I believe Eagle Mountain is the closest (or one of the closest) lakes to DFW where you can own waterfront and build a boatdock.


That's still crazy

DPatel304
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Re: DFW Economy

Postby DPatel304 » 07 Oct 2019 20:22

Seems a bit weird to include that quote in an article talking about people commuting from Fort Worth to Dallas, as his reason for living so far out seems to have little to do with Fort Worth and has more to do with the lake instead.

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tanzoak
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Re: DFW Economy

Postby tanzoak » 12 Oct 2019 02:48

Tucy wrote:
Cord1936 wrote:The latest Census Bureau statistics, and the latest Ft. Worth Star Telegram article, confirm in fact that seems to have become reality. To wit:

"But a large number of Fort Worth residents — nearly 192,000 people — still leaves the city for work, Census data shows. Between 2005-14, the percentage of commuters leaving Fort Worth jumped from 53% to 62%."

62%! That is a HUGE NUMBER commuting out of Ft. Worth daily, primarily to Dallas and Dallas County, for work.


That is a huge number, but I don't think there's any reason for your conclusion that those commuters are primarily going to Dallas and Dallas County. Since this is a Fort Worth number, not a Tarrant County number, I suspect they are primarily going elsewhere in Tarrant County. It's instructive that the same article tells us that "nearly 16%" of Tarrant County workers commute to Dallas, so it is unlikely that a significantly higher percentage of Fort Worth workers commute to Dallas.


Such a huge number that I had to check for myself. It doesn't appear to be accurate. According to the Census American Community Survey, which is the data they use for the map in the article and where they (correctly) get the 16% Tarrant to Dallas figure, 61% of Ft Worth residents work in Ft Worth. 5% work in Arlington, 4% in Dallas, and 3% in Irving. I'm pretty sure someone pulled the city data incorrectly.

https://ctpp.transportation.org/2012-2016-5-year-ctpp/

I45Tex
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Re: DFW Economy

Postby I45Tex » 12 Oct 2019 22:12

The ACS may not be the best tool to use to skin this cat:

https://onthemap.ces.census.gov

Someone can select Fort Worth and then map what counties the city's workers are employed in, and see the top 100 counties in 2017. Then they can change the search and map what other Places (Cities and Census Designated Places, etc.) its workers are employed in, subtracting other Tarrant County places from the total Tarrant had in the first search.

Someone really excited could reverse the search for the same year and see where everybody lives outside of Fort Worth who commutes into Fort Worth, if they desired to know how a gain would net out against its commute losses (how much of a bedroom community it is).

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tanzoak
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Re: DFW Economy

Postby tanzoak » 13 Oct 2019 15:03

I45Tex wrote:The ACS may not be the best tool to use to skin this cat:

https://onthemap.ces.census.gov

Someone can select Fort Worth and then map what counties the city's workers are employed in, and see the top 100 counties in 2017. Then they can change the search and map what other Places (Cities and Census Designated Places, etc.) its workers are employed in, subtracting other Tarrant County places from the total Tarrant had in the first search.

Someone really excited could reverse the search for the same year and see where everybody lives outside of Fort Worth who commutes into Fort Worth, if they desired to know how a gain would net out against its commute losses (how much of a bedroom community it is).


I don't like using LEHD for O-Ds. The biggest issue is that LEHD data is from employers, and particularly for firms with multiple locations, the mailing address that the business provides for its location isn't necessarily the same as the workplace addresses for most of their employees.

The sample size for the ACS is very large for big cities/counties like Ft Worth/Tarrant, so the margin of error is relatively small. LEHD actually has another issue on this front in that it isn't even a probability sample--it's a count from firms paying unemployment insurance--so some types of workers are systematically excluded from the data, biasing it when trying to use it to describe overall flows.

I45Tex
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Re: DFW Economy

Postby I45Tex » 14 Oct 2019 16:16

Thank you for that good discussion. Do you know whether the OMB delineations of core-based statistical areas (for other readers: this includes both micropolitan and metropolitan statistical areas) are being based on ACS, LEHD, or some other dataset updating?

I ask because, in 2017 LEHD, one of the halves for Stephenville μSA's employment interchange measurement equation with DFW MSA is now 25.9%. (If this were the correct data to use, then it would either have been defined as an outlying county inside DFW MSA this year, or else missed it simply due to no longer touching DFW MSA -- cut off now that Hood County is removed from the FW metro division of the MSA into a separate micropolitan area -- is that right?)
Even with the contiguous territory rule, Stephenville would still join DFW CSA, though.


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